A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: Unit root tests with gradual change analysis()

The Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory by Butler (1980) proposes an S-shaped growth trend for the evolution of the number of tourists to a specific tourist destination. According to the data on tourist arrivals in Spain from 1946 to 2015, there may have been one or two life cycles. This paper set...

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Autores principales: Albaladejo, Isabel P., González-Martínez, María Isabel, Martínez-García, María Pilar
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7577662/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2020.100497
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author Albaladejo, Isabel P.
González-Martínez, María Isabel
Martínez-García, María Pilar
author_facet Albaladejo, Isabel P.
González-Martínez, María Isabel
Martínez-García, María Pilar
author_sort Albaladejo, Isabel P.
collection PubMed
description The Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory by Butler (1980) proposes an S-shaped growth trend for the evolution of the number of tourists to a specific tourist destination. According to the data on tourist arrivals in Spain from 1946 to 2015, there may have been one or two life cycles. This paper sets out to test these hypotheses by unit root tests with gradual change. The results confirm that a double S-shaped or bilogistic curve is the long-run equilibrium, thereby validating the existence of two TALCs in the evolution of Spanish tourism. The two logistic curves overlap in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The first is characterized by the Spanish tourism boom in the 1960s, while the second illustrates the intense growth from 1995 to 2007, a period of sustained world economic growth.
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spelling pubmed-75776622020-10-22 A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: Unit root tests with gradual change analysis() Albaladejo, Isabel P. González-Martínez, María Isabel Martínez-García, María Pilar Journal of Destination Marketing & Management Article The Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) theory by Butler (1980) proposes an S-shaped growth trend for the evolution of the number of tourists to a specific tourist destination. According to the data on tourist arrivals in Spain from 1946 to 2015, there may have been one or two life cycles. This paper sets out to test these hypotheses by unit root tests with gradual change. The results confirm that a double S-shaped or bilogistic curve is the long-run equilibrium, thereby validating the existence of two TALCs in the evolution of Spanish tourism. The two logistic curves overlap in the late 1970s and early 1980s. The first is characterized by the Spanish tourism boom in the 1960s, while the second illustrates the intense growth from 1995 to 2007, a period of sustained world economic growth. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-12 2020-10-21 /pmc/articles/PMC7577662/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2020.100497 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Albaladejo, Isabel P.
González-Martínez, María Isabel
Martínez-García, María Pilar
A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: Unit root tests with gradual change analysis()
title A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: Unit root tests with gradual change analysis()
title_full A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: Unit root tests with gradual change analysis()
title_fullStr A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: Unit root tests with gradual change analysis()
title_full_unstemmed A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: Unit root tests with gradual change analysis()
title_short A double life cycle in tourism arrivals to Spain: Unit root tests with gradual change analysis()
title_sort double life cycle in tourism arrivals to spain: unit root tests with gradual change analysis()
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7577662/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jdmm.2020.100497
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