How to Improve Compliance with Protective Health Measures during the COVID-19 Outbreak: Testing a Moderated Mediation Model and Machine Learning Algorithms

In the wake of the sudden spread of COVID-19, a large amount of the Italian population practiced incongruous behaviors with the protective health measures. The present study aimed at examining psychological and psychosocial variables that could predict behavioral compliance. An online survey was administered from 18–22 March 2020 to 2766 participants. Paired sample t-tests were run to compare efficacy perception with behavioral compliance. Mediation and moderated mediation models were constructed to explore the association between perceived efficacy and compliance, mediated by self-efficacy and moderated by risk perception and civic attitudes. Machine learning algorithms were trained to predict which individuals would be more likely to comply with protective measures. Results indicated significantly lower scores in behavioral compliance than efficacy perception. Risk perception and civic attitudes as moderators rendered the mediating effect of self-efficacy insignificant. Perceived efficacy on the adoption of recommended behaviors varied in accordance with risk perception and civic engagement. The 14 collected variables, entered as predictors in machine learning models, produced an ROC area in the range of 0.82–0.91 classifying individuals as high versus low compliance. Overall, these findings could be helpful in guiding age-tailored information/advertising campaigns in countries affected by COVID-19 and directing further research on behavioral compliance.