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An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings

This study is an overview of the current and future trajectory, as well as the impact of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the world and selected countries including the state of Kuwait. The selected countries were divided into two groups: Group A (China, Switzerland, and Ireland) and Group B (USA...

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Autores principales: Al-Anzi, Bader S., Alenizi, Mohammad, Al Dallal, Jehad, Abookleesh, Frage Lhadi, Ullah, Aman
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7579180/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32992809
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17197016
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author Al-Anzi, Bader S.
Alenizi, Mohammad
Al Dallal, Jehad
Abookleesh, Frage Lhadi
Ullah, Aman
author_facet Al-Anzi, Bader S.
Alenizi, Mohammad
Al Dallal, Jehad
Abookleesh, Frage Lhadi
Ullah, Aman
author_sort Al-Anzi, Bader S.
collection PubMed
description This study is an overview of the current and future trajectory, as well as the impact of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the world and selected countries including the state of Kuwait. The selected countries were divided into two groups: Group A (China, Switzerland, and Ireland) and Group B (USA, Brazil, and India) based on their outbreak containment of this virus. Then, the actual data for each country were fitted to a regression model utilizing the excel solver software to assess the current and future trajectory of novel COVID-19 and its impact. In addition, the data were fitted using the Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) Model. The Group A trajectory showed an “S” shape trend that suited a logistic function with r(2) > 0.97, which is an indication of the outbreak control. The SIR models for the countries in this group showed that they passed the expected 99% end of pandemic dates. Group B, however, exhibited a continuous increase of the total COVID-19 new cases, that best suited an exponential growth model with r(2) > 0.97, which meant that the outbreak is still uncontrolled. The SIR models for the countries in this group showed that they are still relatively far away from reaching the expected 97% end of pandemic dates. The maximum death percentage varied from 3.3% (India) to 7.2% with USA recording the highest death percentage, which is virtually equal to the maximum death percentage of the world (7.3%). The power of the exponential model determines the severity of the country’s trajectory that ranged from 11 to 19 with the USA and Brazil having the highest values. The maximum impact of this COVID-19 pandemic occurred during the uncontrolled stage (2), which mainly depended on the deceptive stage (1). Further, some novel potential containment strategies are discussed. Results from both models showed that the Group A countries contained the outbreak, whereas the Group B countries still have not reached this stage yet. Early measures and containment strategies are imperative in suppressing the spread of COVID-19.
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spelling pubmed-75791802020-10-29 An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings Al-Anzi, Bader S. Alenizi, Mohammad Al Dallal, Jehad Abookleesh, Frage Lhadi Ullah, Aman Int J Environ Res Public Health Review This study is an overview of the current and future trajectory, as well as the impact of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) in the world and selected countries including the state of Kuwait. The selected countries were divided into two groups: Group A (China, Switzerland, and Ireland) and Group B (USA, Brazil, and India) based on their outbreak containment of this virus. Then, the actual data for each country were fitted to a regression model utilizing the excel solver software to assess the current and future trajectory of novel COVID-19 and its impact. In addition, the data were fitted using the Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) Model. The Group A trajectory showed an “S” shape trend that suited a logistic function with r(2) > 0.97, which is an indication of the outbreak control. The SIR models for the countries in this group showed that they passed the expected 99% end of pandemic dates. Group B, however, exhibited a continuous increase of the total COVID-19 new cases, that best suited an exponential growth model with r(2) > 0.97, which meant that the outbreak is still uncontrolled. The SIR models for the countries in this group showed that they are still relatively far away from reaching the expected 97% end of pandemic dates. The maximum death percentage varied from 3.3% (India) to 7.2% with USA recording the highest death percentage, which is virtually equal to the maximum death percentage of the world (7.3%). The power of the exponential model determines the severity of the country’s trajectory that ranged from 11 to 19 with the USA and Brazil having the highest values. The maximum impact of this COVID-19 pandemic occurred during the uncontrolled stage (2), which mainly depended on the deceptive stage (1). Further, some novel potential containment strategies are discussed. Results from both models showed that the Group A countries contained the outbreak, whereas the Group B countries still have not reached this stage yet. Early measures and containment strategies are imperative in suppressing the spread of COVID-19. MDPI 2020-09-25 2020-10 /pmc/articles/PMC7579180/ /pubmed/32992809 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17197016 Text en © 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Review
Al-Anzi, Bader S.
Alenizi, Mohammad
Al Dallal, Jehad
Abookleesh, Frage Lhadi
Ullah, Aman
An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings
title An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings
title_full An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings
title_fullStr An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings
title_full_unstemmed An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings
title_short An Overview of the World Current and Future Assessment of Novel COVID-19 Trajectory, Impact, and Potential Preventive Strategies at Healthcare Settings
title_sort overview of the world current and future assessment of novel covid-19 trajectory, impact, and potential preventive strategies at healthcare settings
topic Review
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7579180/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32992809
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17197016
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