A nomogram for determining the disease-specific survival in invasive lobular carcinoma of the breast: A population study

We aimed to establish and validate a nomogram for predicting the disease-specific survival of invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) patients. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program database was used to identify ILC from 2010 to 2015, in which the data was extracted from 18 registries in the US. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic factors and a nomogram was constructed to predict the 3-year and 5-year survival rates of ILC patients based on Cox regression. Predictive values were compared between the new model and the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system using the concordance index, calibration plots, integrated discrimination improvement, net reclassification improvement, and decision-curve analyses. In total, 4155 patients were identified. After multivariate Cox regression analysis, nomogram was established based on a new model containing the predictive variables of age, the primary tumor site, histology grade, American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM (tumor node metastasis) stages II, III, and IV, breast cancer subtype, therapy modality (surgery and chemotherapy). The concordance index for the training and validation cohorts were higher for the new model (0.781 and 0.832, respectively) than for the old model (0.733 and 0.779). The new model had good performance in the calibration plots. Net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement were also improved. Finally, decision-curve analyses demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. We have developed a reliable nomogram for determining the prognosis and treatment outcomes of ILC. The new model facilitates the choosing of superior medical examinations and the optimizing of therapeutic regimens with cooperation among oncologists.