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Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of developme...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7581153/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33134944 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000253 |
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author | Al Hassan, Haamed Cocks, Eve Jesani, Lara Lewis, Sally Szakmany, Tamas |
author_facet | Al Hassan, Haamed Cocks, Eve Jesani, Lara Lewis, Sally Szakmany, Tamas |
author_sort | Al Hassan, Haamed |
collection | PubMed |
description | Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of development of severe coronavirus disease 2019 disease leading to ICU admission or death censored at hospital discharge or 30 days. We collected data from 169 patients. Patients were 73 years old (59–82 yr old), 66 of 169 (39.1%) were female, 57 (33.7%) had one comorbidity, and 80 (47.3%) had two or more comorbidities. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the COVID-GRAM score was 0.636 (0.550–0.722), for the CALL score 0.500 (0.411–0.589), and for the nomogram 0.628 (0.543–0.714). |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7581153 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Lippincott Williams & Wilkins |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75811532020-10-29 Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility Al Hassan, Haamed Cocks, Eve Jesani, Lara Lewis, Sally Szakmany, Tamas Crit Care Explor Letter to the Editor Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of development of severe coronavirus disease 2019 disease leading to ICU admission or death censored at hospital discharge or 30 days. We collected data from 169 patients. Patients were 73 years old (59–82 yr old), 66 of 169 (39.1%) were female, 57 (33.7%) had one comorbidity, and 80 (47.3%) had two or more comorbidities. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the COVID-GRAM score was 0.636 (0.550–0.722), for the CALL score 0.500 (0.411–0.589), and for the nomogram 0.628 (0.543–0.714). Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2020-10-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7581153/ /pubmed/33134944 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000253 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the Society of Critical Care Medicine. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) , where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal. |
spellingShingle | Letter to the Editor Al Hassan, Haamed Cocks, Eve Jesani, Lara Lewis, Sally Szakmany, Tamas Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility |
title | Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility |
title_full | Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility |
title_fullStr | Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility |
title_full_unstemmed | Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility |
title_short | Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility |
title_sort | clinical risk prediction scores in coronavirus disease 2019: beware of low validity and clinical utility |
topic | Letter to the Editor |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7581153/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33134944 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000253 |
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