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Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility

Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of developme...

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Autores principales: Al Hassan, Haamed, Cocks, Eve, Jesani, Lara, Lewis, Sally, Szakmany, Tamas
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7581153/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33134944
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000253
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author Al Hassan, Haamed
Cocks, Eve
Jesani, Lara
Lewis, Sally
Szakmany, Tamas
author_facet Al Hassan, Haamed
Cocks, Eve
Jesani, Lara
Lewis, Sally
Szakmany, Tamas
author_sort Al Hassan, Haamed
collection PubMed
description Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of development of severe coronavirus disease 2019 disease leading to ICU admission or death censored at hospital discharge or 30 days. We collected data from 169 patients. Patients were 73 years old (59–82 yr old), 66 of 169 (39.1%) were female, 57 (33.7%) had one comorbidity, and 80 (47.3%) had two or more comorbidities. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the COVID-GRAM score was 0.636 (0.550–0.722), for the CALL score 0.500 (0.411–0.589), and for the nomogram 0.628 (0.543–0.714).
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spelling pubmed-75811532020-10-29 Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility Al Hassan, Haamed Cocks, Eve Jesani, Lara Lewis, Sally Szakmany, Tamas Crit Care Explor Letter to the Editor Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of development of severe coronavirus disease 2019 disease leading to ICU admission or death censored at hospital discharge or 30 days. We collected data from 169 patients. Patients were 73 years old (59–82 yr old), 66 of 169 (39.1%) were female, 57 (33.7%) had one comorbidity, and 80 (47.3%) had two or more comorbidities. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the COVID-GRAM score was 0.636 (0.550–0.722), for the CALL score 0.500 (0.411–0.589), and for the nomogram 0.628 (0.543–0.714). Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 2020-10-19 /pmc/articles/PMC7581153/ /pubmed/33134944 http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000253 Text en Copyright © 2020 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. on behalf of the Society of Critical Care Medicine. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND) (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) , where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially without permission from the journal.
spellingShingle Letter to the Editor
Al Hassan, Haamed
Cocks, Eve
Jesani, Lara
Lewis, Sally
Szakmany, Tamas
Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title_full Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title_fullStr Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title_full_unstemmed Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title_short Clinical Risk Prediction Scores in Coronavirus Disease 2019: Beware of Low Validity and Clinical Utility
title_sort clinical risk prediction scores in coronavirus disease 2019: beware of low validity and clinical utility
topic Letter to the Editor
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7581153/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33134944
http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/CCE.0000000000000253
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