Estimating the optimal interval between rounds of indoor residual spraying of insecticide using malaria incidence data from cohort studies

BACKGROUND: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We estimated the optimal timing interval for IRS using a statistical approach. METHODS: Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo District, a historically high malaria transmission setting in Uganda, during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb active ingredient (Ficam®): December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with pirimiphos methyl active ingredient (Actellic 300®CS): June 2016 to July 2018). A generalized additive model was used to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS based on the predicted malaria incidence. The model was fitted to clinical incidence data from a cohort of children aged 0.5–10 years from selected households observed throughout the study period. RESULTS: 494 children, 67% aged less than 5 years at enrolment were analysed. Six-months period incidence of malaria decreased from 2.96 per person-years at the baseline to 1.74 following the first round of IRS and then to 0.02 after 6 rounds of IRS. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and pirimiphos methyl and by IRS round. To retain an optimum impact, bendiocarb would require respraying 17 (95% CI: 14.2–21.0) weeks after application whereas pirimiphos methyl could remain impactful for 40 (95% CI: 37.0–42.8) weeks, although in the final year this estimates 36 (95% CI: 32.7–37.7) weeks. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of pirimiphos methyl. Neither the amount of rainfall nor the EIR nor the distribution of nets were found to be statistically significant for determining the time period between spray rounds. CONCLUSION: In our setting, the effect of the two IRS products was distinct. Statistically, pirimiphos methyl provided a longer window of protection than bendiocarb, although impact varied between different spray rounds and years which was not explained by rainfall or EIR or distribution of nets in our statistical approach. Understanding the effectiveness of IRS and how long it lasts can help for planning campaigns, but one should consider the financial cost and insecticide resistance. Monitoring the timing of spray campaigns using clinical incidence could be repeated in future programs to help determine the average period of protectivity of these products.