The Effects of Enhanced Enforcement at Mexico’s Southern Border: Evidence From Central American Deportees

Immigration enforcement cooperation between final-destination and transit countries has increased in the last decades. I examine whether the Southern Border Plan, an immigration enforcement program implemented by the Mexican government in 2014, has curbed intentions of unauthorized migrants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras to migrate to the United States. I use the announcement of the Southern Border Plan to implement a difference-in-differences approach and compare the evolution of short-run intentions to engage in additional unauthorized crossings of Central American (treatment group) relative to Mexican deportees (comparison group). The findings suggest that increased enforcement in Mexico decreases the likelihood of attempting repeated unauthorized crossings. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s13524-020-00914-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.