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New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model
HIV prevalence in Japan continues to increase among men who have sex with men (MSM). We built a mathematical model to describe the HIV epidemic, including acute infection and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and projected the model to 2050. We compared current testing and treatment policies, a scena...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7584662/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33097798 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75182-7 |
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author | Gilmour, Stuart Peng, Liping Li, Jinghua Oka, Shinichi Tanuma, Junko |
author_facet | Gilmour, Stuart Peng, Liping Li, Jinghua Oka, Shinichi Tanuma, Junko |
author_sort | Gilmour, Stuart |
collection | PubMed |
description | HIV prevalence in Japan continues to increase among men who have sex with men (MSM). We built a mathematical model to describe the HIV epidemic, including acute infection and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and projected the model to 2050. We compared current testing and treatment policies, a scenario where Japan achieves UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, three PrEP scenarios defined by different coverage levels of 25%, 50%, and 75% among the 20% of MSM with the highest risk behavior, and combinations of these scenarios. With no change in interventions prevalence of HIV among MSM will rise to 9.0% in 2050. If Japan achieves full UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, 84.9% of these infections would be averted. Under 50% PrEP with no expansion of testing and treatment, prevalence will reach 2.6% and 62.1% of infections would be averted by 2050. If in addition UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals are achieved, 92.7% of HIV infections would be prevented by 2050. All interventions tested in this model were cost-saving relative to the base case. Both PrEP and enhanced ART strategies can be cost-saving, and if Japan enhances its testing program for MSM and introduces PrEP, it has the potential to effectively eliminate new infections in the next 30 years. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7584662 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75846622020-10-27 New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model Gilmour, Stuart Peng, Liping Li, Jinghua Oka, Shinichi Tanuma, Junko Sci Rep Article HIV prevalence in Japan continues to increase among men who have sex with men (MSM). We built a mathematical model to describe the HIV epidemic, including acute infection and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), and projected the model to 2050. We compared current testing and treatment policies, a scenario where Japan achieves UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, three PrEP scenarios defined by different coverage levels of 25%, 50%, and 75% among the 20% of MSM with the highest risk behavior, and combinations of these scenarios. With no change in interventions prevalence of HIV among MSM will rise to 9.0% in 2050. If Japan achieves full UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets, 84.9% of these infections would be averted. Under 50% PrEP with no expansion of testing and treatment, prevalence will reach 2.6% and 62.1% of infections would be averted by 2050. If in addition UNAIDS 90-90-90 goals are achieved, 92.7% of HIV infections would be prevented by 2050. All interventions tested in this model were cost-saving relative to the base case. Both PrEP and enhanced ART strategies can be cost-saving, and if Japan enhances its testing program for MSM and introduces PrEP, it has the potential to effectively eliminate new infections in the next 30 years. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-10-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7584662/ /pubmed/33097798 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75182-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
spellingShingle | Article Gilmour, Stuart Peng, Liping Li, Jinghua Oka, Shinichi Tanuma, Junko New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model |
title | New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model |
title_full | New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model |
title_fullStr | New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model |
title_full_unstemmed | New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model |
title_short | New strategies for prevention of HIV among Japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model |
title_sort | new strategies for prevention of hiv among japanese men who have sex with men: a mathematical model |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7584662/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33097798 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75182-7 |
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