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Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves

Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatia...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Li, Ruiyun, Chen, Bin, Zhang, Tao, Ren, Zhehao, Song, Yimeng, Xiao, Yixiong, Hou, Lin, Cai, Jun, Xu, Bo, Li, Miao, Chan, Karen Kie Yan, Tu, Ying, Yang, Mu, Yang, Jing, Liu, Zhaoyang, Shen, Chong, Wang, Che, Xu, Lei, Liu, Qiyong, Bao, Shuming, Zhang, Jianqin, Bi, Yuhai, Bai, Yuqi, Deng, Ke, Zhang, Wusheng, Huang, Wenyu, Whittington, Jason D., Stenseth, Nils Chr., Guan, Dabo, Gong, Peng, Xu, Bing
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7585010/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32989148
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012002117
Descripción
Sumario:Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.