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Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves

Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatia...

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Autores principales: Li, Ruiyun, Chen, Bin, Zhang, Tao, Ren, Zhehao, Song, Yimeng, Xiao, Yixiong, Hou, Lin, Cai, Jun, Xu, Bo, Li, Miao, Chan, Karen Kie Yan, Tu, Ying, Yang, Mu, Yang, Jing, Liu, Zhaoyang, Shen, Chong, Wang, Che, Xu, Lei, Liu, Qiyong, Bao, Shuming, Zhang, Jianqin, Bi, Yuhai, Bai, Yuqi, Deng, Ke, Zhang, Wusheng, Huang, Wenyu, Whittington, Jason D., Stenseth, Nils Chr., Guan, Dabo, Gong, Peng, Xu, Bing
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: National Academy of Sciences 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7585010/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32989148
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012002117
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author Li, Ruiyun
Chen, Bin
Zhang, Tao
Ren, Zhehao
Song, Yimeng
Xiao, Yixiong
Hou, Lin
Cai, Jun
Xu, Bo
Li, Miao
Chan, Karen Kie Yan
Tu, Ying
Yang, Mu
Yang, Jing
Liu, Zhaoyang
Shen, Chong
Wang, Che
Xu, Lei
Liu, Qiyong
Bao, Shuming
Zhang, Jianqin
Bi, Yuhai
Bai, Yuqi
Deng, Ke
Zhang, Wusheng
Huang, Wenyu
Whittington, Jason D.
Stenseth, Nils Chr.
Guan, Dabo
Gong, Peng
Xu, Bing
author_facet Li, Ruiyun
Chen, Bin
Zhang, Tao
Ren, Zhehao
Song, Yimeng
Xiao, Yixiong
Hou, Lin
Cai, Jun
Xu, Bo
Li, Miao
Chan, Karen Kie Yan
Tu, Ying
Yang, Mu
Yang, Jing
Liu, Zhaoyang
Shen, Chong
Wang, Che
Xu, Lei
Liu, Qiyong
Bao, Shuming
Zhang, Jianqin
Bi, Yuhai
Bai, Yuqi
Deng, Ke
Zhang, Wusheng
Huang, Wenyu
Whittington, Jason D.
Stenseth, Nils Chr.
Guan, Dabo
Gong, Peng
Xu, Bing
author_sort Li, Ruiyun
collection PubMed
description Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.
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spelling pubmed-75850102020-10-30 Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves Li, Ruiyun Chen, Bin Zhang, Tao Ren, Zhehao Song, Yimeng Xiao, Yixiong Hou, Lin Cai, Jun Xu, Bo Li, Miao Chan, Karen Kie Yan Tu, Ying Yang, Mu Yang, Jing Liu, Zhaoyang Shen, Chong Wang, Che Xu, Lei Liu, Qiyong Bao, Shuming Zhang, Jianqin Bi, Yuhai Bai, Yuqi Deng, Ke Zhang, Wusheng Huang, Wenyu Whittington, Jason D. Stenseth, Nils Chr. Guan, Dabo Gong, Peng Xu, Bing Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Social Sciences Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society. National Academy of Sciences 2020-10-20 2020-09-28 /pmc/articles/PMC7585010/ /pubmed/32989148 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012002117 Text en Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Social Sciences
Li, Ruiyun
Chen, Bin
Zhang, Tao
Ren, Zhehao
Song, Yimeng
Xiao, Yixiong
Hou, Lin
Cai, Jun
Xu, Bo
Li, Miao
Chan, Karen Kie Yan
Tu, Ying
Yang, Mu
Yang, Jing
Liu, Zhaoyang
Shen, Chong
Wang, Che
Xu, Lei
Liu, Qiyong
Bao, Shuming
Zhang, Jianqin
Bi, Yuhai
Bai, Yuqi
Deng, Ke
Zhang, Wusheng
Huang, Wenyu
Whittington, Jason D.
Stenseth, Nils Chr.
Guan, Dabo
Gong, Peng
Xu, Bing
Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
title Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
title_full Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
title_fullStr Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
title_full_unstemmed Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
title_short Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
title_sort global covid-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
topic Social Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7585010/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32989148
http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012002117
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