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Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves
Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatia...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
National Academy of Sciences
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7585010/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32989148 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012002117 |
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author | Li, Ruiyun Chen, Bin Zhang, Tao Ren, Zhehao Song, Yimeng Xiao, Yixiong Hou, Lin Cai, Jun Xu, Bo Li, Miao Chan, Karen Kie Yan Tu, Ying Yang, Mu Yang, Jing Liu, Zhaoyang Shen, Chong Wang, Che Xu, Lei Liu, Qiyong Bao, Shuming Zhang, Jianqin Bi, Yuhai Bai, Yuqi Deng, Ke Zhang, Wusheng Huang, Wenyu Whittington, Jason D. Stenseth, Nils Chr. Guan, Dabo Gong, Peng Xu, Bing |
author_facet | Li, Ruiyun Chen, Bin Zhang, Tao Ren, Zhehao Song, Yimeng Xiao, Yixiong Hou, Lin Cai, Jun Xu, Bo Li, Miao Chan, Karen Kie Yan Tu, Ying Yang, Mu Yang, Jing Liu, Zhaoyang Shen, Chong Wang, Che Xu, Lei Liu, Qiyong Bao, Shuming Zhang, Jianqin Bi, Yuhai Bai, Yuqi Deng, Ke Zhang, Wusheng Huang, Wenyu Whittington, Jason D. Stenseth, Nils Chr. Guan, Dabo Gong, Peng Xu, Bing |
author_sort | Li, Ruiyun |
collection | PubMed |
description | Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7585010 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75850102020-10-30 Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves Li, Ruiyun Chen, Bin Zhang, Tao Ren, Zhehao Song, Yimeng Xiao, Yixiong Hou, Lin Cai, Jun Xu, Bo Li, Miao Chan, Karen Kie Yan Tu, Ying Yang, Mu Yang, Jing Liu, Zhaoyang Shen, Chong Wang, Che Xu, Lei Liu, Qiyong Bao, Shuming Zhang, Jianqin Bi, Yuhai Bai, Yuqi Deng, Ke Zhang, Wusheng Huang, Wenyu Whittington, Jason D. Stenseth, Nils Chr. Guan, Dabo Gong, Peng Xu, Bing Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A Social Sciences Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society. National Academy of Sciences 2020-10-20 2020-09-28 /pmc/articles/PMC7585010/ /pubmed/32989148 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012002117 Text en Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY) (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Social Sciences Li, Ruiyun Chen, Bin Zhang, Tao Ren, Zhehao Song, Yimeng Xiao, Yixiong Hou, Lin Cai, Jun Xu, Bo Li, Miao Chan, Karen Kie Yan Tu, Ying Yang, Mu Yang, Jing Liu, Zhaoyang Shen, Chong Wang, Che Xu, Lei Liu, Qiyong Bao, Shuming Zhang, Jianqin Bi, Yuhai Bai, Yuqi Deng, Ke Zhang, Wusheng Huang, Wenyu Whittington, Jason D. Stenseth, Nils Chr. Guan, Dabo Gong, Peng Xu, Bing Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves |
title | Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves |
title_full | Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves |
title_fullStr | Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves |
title_full_unstemmed | Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves |
title_short | Global COVID-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves |
title_sort | global covid-19 pandemic demands joint interventions for the suppression of future waves |
topic | Social Sciences |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7585010/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32989148 http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2012002117 |
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