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Phenomenological dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic: Meta-analysis for adjustment parameters
We present a phenomenological procedure of dealing with the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) data provided by government health agencies of 11 different countries. Usually, the exact or approximate solutions of susceptible–infected–recovered (or other) model(s) are obtained fitting the data by ad...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
AIP Publishing LLC
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7585449/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33138458 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0019742 |
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author | Hojman, Sergio A. Asenjo, Felipe A. |
author_facet | Hojman, Sergio A. Asenjo, Felipe A. |
author_sort | Hojman, Sergio A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | We present a phenomenological procedure of dealing with the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) data provided by government health agencies of 11 different countries. Usually, the exact or approximate solutions of susceptible–infected–recovered (or other) model(s) are obtained fitting the data by adjusting the time-independent parameters that are included in those models. Instead of that, in this work, we introduce dynamical parameters whose time-dependence may be phenomenologically obtained by adequately extrapolating a chosen subset of the daily provided data. This phenomenological approach works extremely well to properly adjust the number of infected (and removed) individuals in time for the countries we consider. Besides, it can handle the sub-epidemic events that some countries may experience. In this way, we obtain the evolution of the pandemic without using any a priori model based on differential equations. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7585449 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | AIP Publishing LLC |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75854492020-10-27 Phenomenological dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic: Meta-analysis for adjustment parameters Hojman, Sergio A. Asenjo, Felipe A. Chaos Regular Articles We present a phenomenological procedure of dealing with the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) data provided by government health agencies of 11 different countries. Usually, the exact or approximate solutions of susceptible–infected–recovered (or other) model(s) are obtained fitting the data by adjusting the time-independent parameters that are included in those models. Instead of that, in this work, we introduce dynamical parameters whose time-dependence may be phenomenologically obtained by adequately extrapolating a chosen subset of the daily provided data. This phenomenological approach works extremely well to properly adjust the number of infected (and removed) individuals in time for the countries we consider. Besides, it can handle the sub-epidemic events that some countries may experience. In this way, we obtain the evolution of the pandemic without using any a priori model based on differential equations. AIP Publishing LLC 2020-10 2020-10-20 /pmc/articles/PMC7585449/ /pubmed/33138458 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0019742 Text en © 2020 Author(s) Published under license by AIP Publishing. 1054-1500/2020/30(10)/103120/12/$30.00 All article content, except where otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Regular Articles Hojman, Sergio A. Asenjo, Felipe A. Phenomenological dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic: Meta-analysis for adjustment parameters |
title | Phenomenological dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic: Meta-analysis for adjustment parameters |
title_full | Phenomenological dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic: Meta-analysis for adjustment parameters |
title_fullStr | Phenomenological dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic: Meta-analysis for adjustment parameters |
title_full_unstemmed | Phenomenological dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic: Meta-analysis for adjustment parameters |
title_short | Phenomenological dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic: Meta-analysis for adjustment parameters |
title_sort | phenomenological dynamics of covid-19 pandemic: meta-analysis for adjustment parameters |
topic | Regular Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7585449/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33138458 http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0019742 |
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