Population migration, confirmed COVID-19 cases, pandemic prevention, and control: evidence and experiences from China

AIM: The virulence of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has facilitated its rapid transition towards becoming a pandemic. Hence, this study aims to investigate the association between population migration and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China while investigating its measures for pandemic prevention and control. SUBJECT AND METHODS: A susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered–dormancy (SEIRD) model for the spread of COVID-19 in China was created to theoretically simulate the relationship between the populations migrating from Wuhan and the number of confirmed cases. Data from Baidu’s real-time dynamic pandemic monitoring system were elicited to empirically examine the theoretical inferences. RESULTS: Populations migrating from Wuhan to other cities increased the initial number of latently infected cases in these cities, raising the number of confirmed cases. Hence, implementing social distancing between the susceptible and infected populations could effectively lower the number of infected cases. Using data from Baidu’s real-time dynamic pandemic monitoring system, the empirical results revealed that an increase of 1000 persons migrating from Wuhan raised the number of confirmed cases by 4.82 persons. CONCLUSION: This study confirmed the positive association between population migration and the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Based on the theoretical and empirical analysis, China’s pandemic prevention and control measures are discussed.