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Spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity: A case of COVID-19 in Eswatini

Coronavirus (COVID-19) has rapidly spread across many countries in pandemic proportions since the first case was reported in Hubei, China in December 2019. Understanding transmission, susceptibility and exposure risks is crucial for surveillance, control and response to the disease. Knowing the geog...

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Autores principales: Dlamini, Wisdom M., Dlamini, Sabelo N., Mabaso, Sizwe D., Simelane, Sabelo P.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7586938/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33132463
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102358
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author Dlamini, Wisdom M.
Dlamini, Sabelo N.
Mabaso, Sizwe D.
Simelane, Sabelo P.
author_facet Dlamini, Wisdom M.
Dlamini, Sabelo N.
Mabaso, Sizwe D.
Simelane, Sabelo P.
author_sort Dlamini, Wisdom M.
collection PubMed
description Coronavirus (COVID-19) has rapidly spread across many countries in pandemic proportions since the first case was reported in Hubei, China in December 2019. Understanding transmission, susceptibility and exposure risks is crucial for surveillance, control and response to the disease. Knowing the geographic distribution of health resource scarcity areas is necessary if a country is to adequately anticipate and prepare for the full impact of infections. We explored the potential to undertake a spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity in Eswatini. We used a set of socio-economic and demographic variables to identify epidemic risk prone areas in the country. Three risk zone levels for COVID-19 were identified in the country. The analysis showed that about 29% (320 818) of the population were located in the high risk zone and these were people who could potentially be infected with COVID-19 in the absence of mitigation measures. A majority of cases and deaths attributed to COVID-19 would likely remain unknown but our estimate could be used to gauge the full burden of the disease. Approximating and quantifying the number of people who may be potentially infected with COVID-19 remains impossible under data scarcity and limited healthcare capacity especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We provided an estimation method that could support the pandemic risk forecasting, preparedness and response measures in the midst of data scarcity. The resultant map products could be used to guide on-the-ground surveillance and response efforts.
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spelling pubmed-75869382020-10-27 Spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity: A case of COVID-19 in Eswatini Dlamini, Wisdom M. Dlamini, Sabelo N. Mabaso, Sizwe D. Simelane, Sabelo P. Appl Geogr Article Coronavirus (COVID-19) has rapidly spread across many countries in pandemic proportions since the first case was reported in Hubei, China in December 2019. Understanding transmission, susceptibility and exposure risks is crucial for surveillance, control and response to the disease. Knowing the geographic distribution of health resource scarcity areas is necessary if a country is to adequately anticipate and prepare for the full impact of infections. We explored the potential to undertake a spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity in Eswatini. We used a set of socio-economic and demographic variables to identify epidemic risk prone areas in the country. Three risk zone levels for COVID-19 were identified in the country. The analysis showed that about 29% (320 818) of the population were located in the high risk zone and these were people who could potentially be infected with COVID-19 in the absence of mitigation measures. A majority of cases and deaths attributed to COVID-19 would likely remain unknown but our estimate could be used to gauge the full burden of the disease. Approximating and quantifying the number of people who may be potentially infected with COVID-19 remains impossible under data scarcity and limited healthcare capacity especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We provided an estimation method that could support the pandemic risk forecasting, preparedness and response measures in the midst of data scarcity. The resultant map products could be used to guide on-the-ground surveillance and response efforts. Elsevier Ltd. 2020-12 2020-10-26 /pmc/articles/PMC7586938/ /pubmed/33132463 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102358 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Dlamini, Wisdom M.
Dlamini, Sabelo N.
Mabaso, Sizwe D.
Simelane, Sabelo P.
Spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity: A case of COVID-19 in Eswatini
title Spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity: A case of COVID-19 in Eswatini
title_full Spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity: A case of COVID-19 in Eswatini
title_fullStr Spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity: A case of COVID-19 in Eswatini
title_full_unstemmed Spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity: A case of COVID-19 in Eswatini
title_short Spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity: A case of COVID-19 in Eswatini
title_sort spatial risk assessment of an emerging pandemic under data scarcity: a case of covid-19 in eswatini
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7586938/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33132463
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2020.102358
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