Modeling the Impact of Delaying Bariatric Surgery due to COVID-19: a Decision Analysis

We developed a decision analysis model to evaluate risks and benefits of delaying scheduled bariatric surgery during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Our base case was a 45-year-old female with diabetes and a body mass index of 45 kg/m(2). We compared immediate with delayed surgery...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Shipe, Maren E., Beeghly-Fadiel, Alicia, Deppen, Stephen A., English, Wayne, Grogan, Eric L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2020
Materias:
Brief Communication
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7587518/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33104988
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11695-020-05054-6
Descripción
Sumario:We developed a decision analysis model to evaluate risks and benefits of delaying scheduled bariatric surgery during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Our base case was a 45-year-old female with diabetes and a body mass index of 45 kg/m(2). We compared immediate with delayed surgery after 6 months to allow for COVID-19 prevalence to decrease. We found that immediate and delayed bariatric surgeries after 6 months resulted in similar 20-year overall survival. When the probability of COVID-19 infection exceeded 4%, then delayed surgery improved survival. If future COVID-19 infection rates were at least half those in the immediate scenario, then immediate surgery was favored and local infection rates had to exceed 9% before surgical delay improved survival. Surgeons should consider local disease prevalence and patient comorbidities associated with increased mortality before resuming bariatric surgery programs.

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