A biphasic curve for modeling, classifying, and predicting egg production in single cycle and molted flocks

Egg production on a flock level can be summarized into several phases determined by biology of individual birds: rapid increase in production reflecting achieving sexual maturity, peak production related to maximum laying potential, followed by gradual decrease in the rate of lay as the birds age. In 1989 Yang et al. proposed a mathematical model (modified compartmental model) to describe this process. In this study a biphasic modified compartmental model was proposed for modeling, classifying, and predicting egg production in single cycle and molted flocks. Goodness-of-fit was high for both single cycle (average R(2) = 0.99) and molted flocks (average R(2) = 0.97), suggesting that the model could be used for benchmarking molted flocks. The difference in R(2) between the biphasic model and the model used by Yang et al in 1989 can be used to differentiate between single cycle and molted flocks. The biphasic model was shown to predict future records well up to 8 wk in advance, but as with any regression model, caution is recommended when predicting records outside of the observed age range.