A survival analysis of COVID-19 in the Mexican population

BACKGROUND: At present, the Americas report the largest number of cases of COVID-19 worldwide. In this region, Mexico is the third country with most deaths (20,781 total deaths). A sum that may be explained by the high proportion of people over 50 and the high rate of chronic diseases. The aim of this analysis is to investigate the risk factors associated with COVID-19 deaths in Mexican population using survival analysis. METHODS: Our analysis includes all confirmed COVID-19 cases contained in the dataset published by the Epidemiological Surveillance System for Viral Respiratory Diseases of the Mexican Ministry of Health. We applied survival analysis to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the Mexican population. From this analysis, we plotted Kaplan-Meier curves, and constructed a Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: The analysis included the register of 16,752 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with mean age 46.55 ± 15.55 years; 58.02% (n = 9719) men, and 9.37% (n = 1569) deaths. Male sex, older age, chronic kidney disease, pneumonia, hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, intubation, and health care in public health services, were independent factors increasing the risk of death due to COVID-19 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of dying at any time during follow-up was clearly higher for men, individuals in older age groups, people with chronic kidney disease, and people hospitalized in public health services. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-020-09721-2.