Personalized prediction of delayed graft function for recipients of deceased donor kidney transplants with machine learning

Machine learning (ML) has shown its potential to improve patient care over the last decade. In organ transplantation, delayed graft function (DGF) remains a major concern in deceased donor kidney transplantation (DDKT). To this end, we harnessed ML to build personalized prognostic models to predict DGF. Registry data were obtained on adult DDKT recipients for model development (n = 55,044) and validation (n = 6176). Incidence rates of DGF were 25.1% and 26.3% for the development and validation sets, respectively. Twenty-six predictors were identified via recursive feature elimination with random forest. Five widely-used ML algorithms—logistic regression (LR), elastic net, random forest, artificial neural network (ANN), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) were trained and compared with a baseline LR model fitted with previously identified risk factors. The new ML models, particularly ANN with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) of 0.732 and XGB with ROC-AUC of 0.735, exhibited superior performance to the baseline model (ROC-AUC = 0.705). This study demonstrates the use of ML as a viable strategy to enable personalized risk quantification for medical applications. If successfully implemented, our models may aid in both risk quantification for DGF prevention clinical trials and personalized clinical decision making.