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Prediction on transaction amounts of China’s CBEC with improved GM (1, 1) models based on the principle of new information priority
Benefited by e-commerce activities and information technology development, cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) has experienced rapid growth and attracted much research attention. This study takes China’s CBEC as a typical research object and intends to forecast its future development trend based on an ex...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer US
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7592459/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10660-020-09434-z |
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author | Mi, Chuanmin Wang, Yijing Xiao, Lin |
author_facet | Mi, Chuanmin Wang, Yijing Xiao, Lin |
author_sort | Mi, Chuanmin |
collection | PubMed |
description | Benefited by e-commerce activities and information technology development, cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) has experienced rapid growth and attracted much research attention. This study takes China’s CBEC as a typical research object and intends to forecast its future development trend based on an exploration of its dynamic changing rules as a whole. The data set of transaction amounts of China’s CBEC from 2008 to 2018 was used in the modeling processes of improved grey models (GM) (1,1) proposed in this study, after which forecast results on the development of China’s CBEC from 2019 to 2020 were achieved. The experimental results reveal that, introducing the principle of new information priority to the improvement of grey models indeed works when forecasting a newly-emerging and vulnerable system like CBEC. Finally, it is predicted that China’s CBEC promises to continue to grow in the near future. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7592459 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Springer US |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-75924592020-10-29 Prediction on transaction amounts of China’s CBEC with improved GM (1, 1) models based on the principle of new information priority Mi, Chuanmin Wang, Yijing Xiao, Lin Electron Commer Res Article Benefited by e-commerce activities and information technology development, cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) has experienced rapid growth and attracted much research attention. This study takes China’s CBEC as a typical research object and intends to forecast its future development trend based on an exploration of its dynamic changing rules as a whole. The data set of transaction amounts of China’s CBEC from 2008 to 2018 was used in the modeling processes of improved grey models (GM) (1,1) proposed in this study, after which forecast results on the development of China’s CBEC from 2019 to 2020 were achieved. The experimental results reveal that, introducing the principle of new information priority to the improvement of grey models indeed works when forecasting a newly-emerging and vulnerable system like CBEC. Finally, it is predicted that China’s CBEC promises to continue to grow in the near future. Springer US 2020-10-28 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC7592459/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10660-020-09434-z Text en © Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Article Mi, Chuanmin Wang, Yijing Xiao, Lin Prediction on transaction amounts of China’s CBEC with improved GM (1, 1) models based on the principle of new information priority |
title | Prediction on transaction amounts of China’s CBEC with improved GM (1, 1) models based on the principle of new information priority |
title_full | Prediction on transaction amounts of China’s CBEC with improved GM (1, 1) models based on the principle of new information priority |
title_fullStr | Prediction on transaction amounts of China’s CBEC with improved GM (1, 1) models based on the principle of new information priority |
title_full_unstemmed | Prediction on transaction amounts of China’s CBEC with improved GM (1, 1) models based on the principle of new information priority |
title_short | Prediction on transaction amounts of China’s CBEC with improved GM (1, 1) models based on the principle of new information priority |
title_sort | prediction on transaction amounts of china’s cbec with improved gm (1, 1) models based on the principle of new information priority |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7592459/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10660-020-09434-z |
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