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Evaluation of COVID-19 Surveillance Strategy in Ecuador

OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the relevance of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) positive case detection policy or model implemented by the Ministry of Public Health (MPH) of Ecuador and to compare it with the experiences of other countries. METHODS: Data contained the daily reports publicized by the M...

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Autores principales: Cañizares Fuentes, Ricardo, Aroca, Rubén, Blasco Carlos, Miquel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Cambridge University Press 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7596568/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32900417
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.326
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author Cañizares Fuentes, Ricardo
Aroca, Rubén
Blasco Carlos, Miquel
author_facet Cañizares Fuentes, Ricardo
Aroca, Rubén
Blasco Carlos, Miquel
author_sort Cañizares Fuentes, Ricardo
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the relevance of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) positive case detection policy or model implemented by the Ministry of Public Health (MPH) of Ecuador and to compare it with the experiences of other countries. METHODS: Data contained the daily reports publicized by the MPH. The formulations were carried out under the Conditioned Probability modality applying Bayes’ Theorem. All the COVID-19 tests applied in relation to the confirmed cases per million inhabitants were considered to obtain their level of positivity, and compared with the experience of Iceland and South Korea. RESULTS: The probability of detecting positive cases of COVID-19 in Ecuador was higher than Iceland and South Korea, because the diagnostic tests were aimed at symptomatic patients, without identifying asymptomatic or mild symptomatic, who play an important role in the transmission of the disease. In addition, many symptomatic patients were examined but will remain undiagnosed due to the unavailability of tests and the low quality of many of them. CONCLUSIONS: The daily reports on the behavior of the COVID-19 issued by the Ecuadorian government do not adequately represent the growth in the number of those infected each day, nor the actual behavior of the epidemic, affecting possible control measures.
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spelling pubmed-75965682020-11-02 Evaluation of COVID-19 Surveillance Strategy in Ecuador Cañizares Fuentes, Ricardo Aroca, Rubén Blasco Carlos, Miquel Disaster Med Public Health Prep Brief Report OBJECTIVES: Evaluate the relevance of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) positive case detection policy or model implemented by the Ministry of Public Health (MPH) of Ecuador and to compare it with the experiences of other countries. METHODS: Data contained the daily reports publicized by the MPH. The formulations were carried out under the Conditioned Probability modality applying Bayes’ Theorem. All the COVID-19 tests applied in relation to the confirmed cases per million inhabitants were considered to obtain their level of positivity, and compared with the experience of Iceland and South Korea. RESULTS: The probability of detecting positive cases of COVID-19 in Ecuador was higher than Iceland and South Korea, because the diagnostic tests were aimed at symptomatic patients, without identifying asymptomatic or mild symptomatic, who play an important role in the transmission of the disease. In addition, many symptomatic patients were examined but will remain undiagnosed due to the unavailability of tests and the low quality of many of them. CONCLUSIONS: The daily reports on the behavior of the COVID-19 issued by the Ecuadorian government do not adequately represent the growth in the number of those infected each day, nor the actual behavior of the epidemic, affecting possible control measures. Cambridge University Press 2020-09-09 /pmc/articles/PMC7596568/ /pubmed/32900417 http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.326 Text en © Society for Disaster Medicine and Public Health, Inc. 2020 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Brief Report
Cañizares Fuentes, Ricardo
Aroca, Rubén
Blasco Carlos, Miquel
Evaluation of COVID-19 Surveillance Strategy in Ecuador
title Evaluation of COVID-19 Surveillance Strategy in Ecuador
title_full Evaluation of COVID-19 Surveillance Strategy in Ecuador
title_fullStr Evaluation of COVID-19 Surveillance Strategy in Ecuador
title_full_unstemmed Evaluation of COVID-19 Surveillance Strategy in Ecuador
title_short Evaluation of COVID-19 Surveillance Strategy in Ecuador
title_sort evaluation of covid-19 surveillance strategy in ecuador
topic Brief Report
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7596568/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32900417
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2020.326
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