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SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19

We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of symptoms, or even with total absence of them. The model is theore...

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Autor principal: Basnarkov, Lasko
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7598527/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33162690
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110394
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author Basnarkov, Lasko
author_facet Basnarkov, Lasko
author_sort Basnarkov, Lasko
collection PubMed
description We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of symptoms, or even with total absence of them. The model is theoretically analyzed in continuous-time compartmental version and discrete-time version on random regular graphs and complex networks. We show analytically that there are relationships between the epidemic thresholds and the equations for the susceptible populations at the endemic equilibrium in all three versions, which hold when the epidemic is weak. We provide theoretical arguments that eigenvector centrality of a node approximately determines its risk to become infected.
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spelling pubmed-75985272020-11-02 SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19 Basnarkov, Lasko Chaos Solitons Fractals Article We study Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infectious-Recovered (SEAIR) epidemic spreading model of COVID-19. It captures two important characteristics of the infectiousness of COVID-19: delayed start and its appearance before onset of symptoms, or even with total absence of them. The model is theoretically analyzed in continuous-time compartmental version and discrete-time version on random regular graphs and complex networks. We show analytically that there are relationships between the epidemic thresholds and the equations for the susceptible populations at the endemic equilibrium in all three versions, which hold when the epidemic is weak. We provide theoretical arguments that eigenvector centrality of a node approximately determines its risk to become infected. Elsevier Ltd. 2021-01 2020-10-28 /pmc/articles/PMC7598527/ /pubmed/33162690 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110394 Text en © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Basnarkov, Lasko
SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19
title SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19
title_full SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19
title_fullStr SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19
title_full_unstemmed SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19
title_short SEAIR Epidemic spreading model of COVID-19
title_sort seair epidemic spreading model of covid-19
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7598527/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33162690
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110394
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