The Validation of the ATRIA and CHA2DS2-Vasc Scores in Predicting Atrial Fibrillation after Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation (ATRIA) risk scores for prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation (AF) development in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) operation. METHODS: The population of this observational study consisted of 370 patients undergoing CABG operation. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and ATRIA risk scores were calculated for all patients and their association with postoperative AF (AF episode lasting > 5 min) were evaluated. Predictors of postoperative AF were determined by multiple logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: During follow-up, 110 patients (29.7%) developed postoperative AF. With multiple logistic regression analysis, risk factors for postoperative AF were determined: ATRIA risk score (odds ratio [OR] 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-1.36; P<0.001), fasting glucose level (OR 1.006; 95% CI 1.004-1.009; P<0.001), and 24-hour drainage amount (OR 1.002; 95% CI; 1.001-1.004; P<0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses showed that CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and ATRIA risk scores were significant predictors for new-onset AF (C-statistic 0.648; 95% CI 0.59-0.69; P<0.001; and C-statistic 0.664; 95% CI 0.61-0.71; P<0.001, respectively). CONCLUSION: CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and ATRIA risk scores predict new AF in patients undergoing CABG.