Prognostic Value of the Pace of Tumor Progression as Assessed by Serial (18)F-FDG PET/CT Scan and Liquid Biopsy in Refractory Colorectal Cancer: The CORIOLAN Trial

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Management of chemorefractory colorectal cancer patient is challenging, and reliable tools which can predict individual patient prognosis and help the decision making are needed. In this study, we hypothesized that the natural pace of cancer growth and progression, as assessed by early changes of a number of imaging and circulating biomarkers which are surrogates of tumor burden (i.e., metabolically active tumor volume, carcinoembryonic antigen, circulating tumor cells and circulating tumor DNA), could predict patient prognosis. By prospectively recruiting 47 eligible patients who had measurements of these biomarkers taken two weeks apart in the absence of any active anti-cancer treatment, we failed to demonstrate our hypothesis. On the other hand, we found that baseline assessment of the same biomarkers was associated with survival outcomes. Larger studies are needed to confirm these findings and translate them into applications for clinical practice. ABSTRACT: Introduction: Decision making in refractory colorectal cancer (rCRC) is challenging, with limited data available to predict patient outcome. We conducted a study to assess the pace of cancer progression as a potential prognostic and decision tool. Methods: CORIOLAN was a prospective, single-center, single-arm trial recruiting refractory CRC patients with an ECOG performance status of ≤1 and an estimated life expectancy of ≥12 weeks. 18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography ((18)F-FDG PET/CT) scan and blood sample collection were carried out at baseline and after 2 weeks with no cancer treatment given between these timepoints. The primary objective was to evaluate the association between pace of cancer progression as defined by changes of the whole-body metabolically active tumor volume (WB-MATV) and overall survival (OS). Exploratory objectives included evaluation of the prognostic value of circulating cell-free DNA (cfDNA), circulating tumor cells (CTCs) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA). Results: 47 eligible patients who had received a median number of 5 (range 2–8) prior treatments were enrolled. At the time of analysis, 45 deaths had occurred, with 26% of patients dying within 12 weeks. The median OS was 6.3 months (range 0.4–14.3). The median relative delta between WB-MATV at baseline and 2 weeks was +21%. Changes of WB-MATV, however, failed to predict OS (hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, p = 0.383). Similarly, no association was observed between changes of any of the circulating biomarkers investigated and prognosis. By contrast, high WB-MATV (4.2 versus 9.4 months; HR 3.1, p = 0.003), high CEA (4.4 versus 7.0 months; HR 1.9, p = 0.053), high cfDNA (4.7 versus 7.0 months; HR 2.2, p = 0.015) and high CTC count (3.3 versus 7.5 months; HR 6.5, p < 0.001) at baseline were associated with worse OS. Conclusions: In this study, approximately 1 out of 4 refractory CRC patients who were judged to have a life expectancy >12 weeks actually died within 12 weeks. Baseline assessment of WB-MATV, cfDNA, CTCs and CEA, but not early change evaluation of the same, may help to refine patient prognostication and guide management decisions.