Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 pandemic in India and significance of lockdown: A mathematical outlook

A very special type of pneumonic disease that generated the COVID-19 was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and is spreading all over the world. The ongoing outbreak presents a challenge for data scientists to model COVID-19, when the epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 are yet to be fully explained. The uncertainty around the COVID-19 with no vaccine and effective medicine available till today create additional pressure on the epidemiologists and policy makers. In such a crucial situation, it is very important to predict infected cases to support prevention of the disease and aid in the preparation of healthcare service. India is fighting efficiently against COVID-19 and facing greater challenges because of its large population and high population density. Though the government of India is taking all needful steps to prevent its spread but it is not enough to control and stop spread of the disease so far, perhaps due to defiant nature of people living in India. Effective measure to control this disease, medical professionals needs to know the estimated size of this pandemic and pace. In this study, an attempt has been made to understand the spreading capability of COVID-19 in India through some simple models. Findings suggest that the lockdown strategies implemented in India are not successfully reducing the pace of the pandemic significantly after first lockdown.