Prognostic Nomograms Predicting Survival in Patients With Locally Advanced Cervical Squamous Cell Carcinoma: The First Nomogram Compared With Revised FIGO 2018 Staging System

OBJECTIVES: To develop nomograms to assess prognostic factors for 5-year overall survival (OS) and 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) in locally advanced cervical squamous cell carcinoma (LACSC). METHODS: Overall, 618 patients with LACSC were included in this retrospective analysis. Nomograms for 5-year OS and PFS were developed based on Cox proportional hazards regression models. Concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves were used to define the predictive and discriminatory capacity of the nomogram. A comparison between the nomogram and the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system was conducted using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) and area under the curve (tAUC). RESULTS: Multivariate analysis identified several prognostic factors for OS including squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC-Ag), body mass index (BMI), tumor size, pelvic wall involvement, and para-aortic lymph node metastasis (PALNM). Prognostic factors for PFS included BMI, hemoglobin (HGB), tumor size, pelvic wall involvement, pelvic lymph node metastasis (PLNM) and PALNM. Following bootstrap correction, the C-index of OS and PFS was 0.713 and 0.686, respectively. These nomograms showed superior performance compared with the FIGO 2009 and 2018 staging schema. CONCLUSIONS: Nomograms were developed to identify prognostic factors for 5-year OS and PFS in patients with LACSC. These nomograms showed good prognostication and are more comprehensive in predicting survival outcomes than existing staging criteria.