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Modelling the challenges of managing free-ranging dog populations

Free-ranging domestic dogs (FRD) are not only vectors of zoonoses of public health concern, but also pose direct threats to humans, livestock, and endangered wildlife. Many developing countries have struggled to control FRD, despite using both lethal and non-lethal methods. India has amongst the hig...

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Autores principales: Belsare, Aniruddha, Vanak, Abi Tamim
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7608676/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33139803
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75828-6
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author Belsare, Aniruddha
Vanak, Abi Tamim
author_facet Belsare, Aniruddha
Vanak, Abi Tamim
author_sort Belsare, Aniruddha
collection PubMed
description Free-ranging domestic dogs (FRD) are not only vectors of zoonoses of public health concern, but also pose direct threats to humans, livestock, and endangered wildlife. Many developing countries have struggled to control FRD, despite using both lethal and non-lethal methods. India has amongst the highest FRD populations globally and the highest incidences of dog-mediated human rabies, but only deploys Catch–Neuter–Vaccinate–Release (CNVR) for FRD control as a humane alternative to lethal methods, without evidence of it working successfully. Here, we use an agent-based dog population dynamics model to examine the time, effort, financial resources, and conditions needed to successfully control FRD in a typical urban setting. We simulate several scenarios, from an “ideal world” closed population with easily accessible dogs, to a more realistic open population with heterogeneity in catchability of dogs. In only one “best-case” scenario, CNVR resulted in a significant and lasting reduction in FRD, but with vaccination rates peaking only at 35%, which is half the WHO-recommended coverage. The customisable and portable modelling tool that we have developed allows managers to simulate real world processes and understand the expected effort needed to reduce regional dog populations, and assess methods for achieving effective anti-rabies vaccination coverage.
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spelling pubmed-76086762020-11-05 Modelling the challenges of managing free-ranging dog populations Belsare, Aniruddha Vanak, Abi Tamim Sci Rep Article Free-ranging domestic dogs (FRD) are not only vectors of zoonoses of public health concern, but also pose direct threats to humans, livestock, and endangered wildlife. Many developing countries have struggled to control FRD, despite using both lethal and non-lethal methods. India has amongst the highest FRD populations globally and the highest incidences of dog-mediated human rabies, but only deploys Catch–Neuter–Vaccinate–Release (CNVR) for FRD control as a humane alternative to lethal methods, without evidence of it working successfully. Here, we use an agent-based dog population dynamics model to examine the time, effort, financial resources, and conditions needed to successfully control FRD in a typical urban setting. We simulate several scenarios, from an “ideal world” closed population with easily accessible dogs, to a more realistic open population with heterogeneity in catchability of dogs. In only one “best-case” scenario, CNVR resulted in a significant and lasting reduction in FRD, but with vaccination rates peaking only at 35%, which is half the WHO-recommended coverage. The customisable and portable modelling tool that we have developed allows managers to simulate real world processes and understand the expected effort needed to reduce regional dog populations, and assess methods for achieving effective anti-rabies vaccination coverage. Nature Publishing Group UK 2020-11-02 /pmc/articles/PMC7608676/ /pubmed/33139803 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75828-6 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
spellingShingle Article
Belsare, Aniruddha
Vanak, Abi Tamim
Modelling the challenges of managing free-ranging dog populations
title Modelling the challenges of managing free-ranging dog populations
title_full Modelling the challenges of managing free-ranging dog populations
title_fullStr Modelling the challenges of managing free-ranging dog populations
title_full_unstemmed Modelling the challenges of managing free-ranging dog populations
title_short Modelling the challenges of managing free-ranging dog populations
title_sort modelling the challenges of managing free-ranging dog populations
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7608676/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33139803
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-75828-6
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