Genealogy of the neurodegenerative diseases based on a meta-analysis of age-stratified incidence data

While the central common feature of the neurodegenerative diseases (NDs) is the accumulation of misfolded proteins, they share other pathogenic mechanisms. However, we miss an explanation for the onset of the NDs. The mechanisms through which genetic mutations, present from conception are expressed only after several decades of life are unknown. We aim to find clues on the complexity of the disease onset trigger of the different NDs expressed in the number of steps of factors related to a disease. We collected brain autopsies on diseased patients with NDs, and found a dynamic increase of the ND multimorbidity with the advance of age. Together with the observation that the NDs accumulate multiple misfolded proteins, and the same misfolded proteins are involved in more than one ND, motivated us to propose a model for a genealogical tree of the NDs. To collect the dynamic data needed to build the tree, we used a Big-data approach that searched automatically epidemiological datasets for age-stratified incidence of NDs. Based on meta-analysis of over 400 datasets, we developed an algorithm that checks whether a ND follows a multistep model, finds the number of steps necessary for the onset of each ND, finds the number of common steps with other NDs and the number of specific steps of each ND, and builds with these findings a parsimony tree of the genealogy of the NDs. The tree discloses three types of NDs: the stem NDs with less than 3 steps; the trunk NDs with 5 to 6 steps; and the crown NDs with more than 7 steps. The tree provides a comprehensive understanding of the relationship across the different NDs, as well as a mathematical framework for dynamic adjustment of the genealogical tree of the NDs with the appearance of new epidemiological studies and the addition of new NDs to the model, thus setting the basis for the search for the identity and order of these steps. Understanding the complexity, or number of steps, of factors related to disease onset trigger is important prior deciding to study single factors for a multiple steps disease.