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Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling

The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy...

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Autores principales: Swallow, Ben, Birrell, Paul, Blake, Joshua, Burgman, Mark, Challenor, Peter, Coffeng, Luc E., Dawid, Philip, De Angelis, Daniela, Goldstein, Michael, Hemming, Victoria, Marion, Glenn, McKinley, Trevelyan J., Overton, Christopher E., Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina, Pellis, Lorenzo, Probert, Will, Shea, Katriona, Villela, Daniel, Vernon, Ian
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7612598/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35180542
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547
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author Swallow, Ben
Birrell, Paul
Blake, Joshua
Burgman, Mark
Challenor, Peter
Coffeng, Luc E.
Dawid, Philip
De Angelis, Daniela
Goldstein, Michael
Hemming, Victoria
Marion, Glenn
McKinley, Trevelyan J.
Overton, Christopher E.
Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina
Pellis, Lorenzo
Probert, Will
Shea, Katriona
Villela, Daniel
Vernon, Ian
author_facet Swallow, Ben
Birrell, Paul
Blake, Joshua
Burgman, Mark
Challenor, Peter
Coffeng, Luc E.
Dawid, Philip
De Angelis, Daniela
Goldstein, Michael
Hemming, Victoria
Marion, Glenn
McKinley, Trevelyan J.
Overton, Christopher E.
Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina
Pellis, Lorenzo
Probert, Will
Shea, Katriona
Villela, Daniel
Vernon, Ian
author_sort Swallow, Ben
collection PubMed
description The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics.
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spelling pubmed-76125982022-04-11 Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling Swallow, Ben Birrell, Paul Blake, Joshua Burgman, Mark Challenor, Peter Coffeng, Luc E. Dawid, Philip De Angelis, Daniela Goldstein, Michael Hemming, Victoria Marion, Glenn McKinley, Trevelyan J. Overton, Christopher E. Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina Pellis, Lorenzo Probert, Will Shea, Katriona Villela, Daniel Vernon, Ian Epidemics Article The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics. 2022-03-01 2022-02-10 /pmc/articles/PMC7612598/ /pubmed/35180542 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547 Text en https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Swallow, Ben
Birrell, Paul
Blake, Joshua
Burgman, Mark
Challenor, Peter
Coffeng, Luc E.
Dawid, Philip
De Angelis, Daniela
Goldstein, Michael
Hemming, Victoria
Marion, Glenn
McKinley, Trevelyan J.
Overton, Christopher E.
Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina
Pellis, Lorenzo
Probert, Will
Shea, Katriona
Villela, Daniel
Vernon, Ian
Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
title Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
title_full Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
title_fullStr Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
title_full_unstemmed Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
title_short Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
title_sort challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7612598/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/35180542
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547
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