Modelling geographical accessibility to support disaster response and rehabilitation of a healthcare system: an impact analysis of Cyclones Idai and Kenneth in Mozambique

OBJECTIVES: Modelling and assessing the loss of geographical accessibility is key to support disaster response and rehabilitation of the healthcare system. The aim of this study was therefore to estimate postdisaster travel times to functional health facilities and analyse losses in accessibility coverage after Cyclones Idai and Kenneth in Mozambique in 2019. SETTING: We modelled travel time of vulnerable population to the nearest functional health facility in two cyclone-affected regions in Mozambique. Modelling was done using AccessMod V.5.6.30, where roads, rivers, lakes, flood extent, topography and land cover datasets were overlaid with health facility coordinates and high-resolution population data to obtain accessibility coverage estimates under different travel scenarios. OUTCOME MEASURES: Travel time to functional health facilities and accessibility coverage estimates were used to identify spatial differences between predisaster and postdisaster geographical accessibility. RESULTS: We found that accessibility coverage decreased in the cyclone-affected districts, as a result of reduced travel speeds, barriers to movement, road constraints and non-functional health facilities. In Idai-affected districts, accessibility coverage decreased from 78.8% to 52.5%, implying that 136 941 children under 5 years of age were no longer able to reach the nearest facility within 2 hours travel time. In Kenneth-affected districts, accessibility coverage decreased from 82.2% to 71.5%, corresponding to 14 330 children under 5 years of age having to travel >2 hours to reach the nearest facility. Damage to transport networks and reduced travel speeds resulted in the most substantial accessibility coverage losses in both Idai-affected and Kenneth-affected districts. CONCLUSIONS: Postdisaster accessibility modelling can increase our understanding of spatial differences in geographical access to care in the direct aftermath of a disaster and can inform targeting and prioritisation of limited resources. Our results reflect opportunities for integrating accessibility modelling in early disaster response, and to inform discussions on health system recovery, mitigation and preparedness.