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Forecasting imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea using mobile roaming data

As the number of global coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases increases, the number of imported cases is gradually rising. Furthermore, there is no reduction in domestic outbreaks. To assess the risks from imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea, we suggest using the daily risk score. Confirmed COVID-...

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Autores principales: Choi, Soo Beom, Ahn, Insung
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7641397/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33147252
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241466
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author Choi, Soo Beom
Ahn, Insung
author_facet Choi, Soo Beom
Ahn, Insung
author_sort Choi, Soo Beom
collection PubMed
description As the number of global coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases increases, the number of imported cases is gradually rising. Furthermore, there is no reduction in domestic outbreaks. To assess the risks from imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea, we suggest using the daily risk score. Confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by John Hopkins University Center, roaming data collected from Korea Telecom, and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker index were included in calculating the risk score. The risk score was highly correlated with imported COVID-19 cases after 12 days. To forecast daily imported COVID-19 cases after 12 days in South Korea, we developed prediction models using simple linear regression and autoregressive integrated moving average, including exogenous variables (ARIMAX). In the validation set, the root mean squared error of the linear regression model using the risk score was 6.2, which was lower than that of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA; 22.3) without the risk score as a reference. Correlation coefficient of ARIMAX using the risk score (0.925) was higher than that of ARIMA (0.899). A possible reason for this time lag of 12 days between imported cases and the risk score could be the delay that occurs before the effect of government policies such as closure of airports or lockdown of cities. Roaming data could help warn roaming users regarding their COVID-19 risk status and inform the national health agency of possible high-risk areas for domestic outbreaks.
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spelling pubmed-76413972020-11-16 Forecasting imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea using mobile roaming data Choi, Soo Beom Ahn, Insung PLoS One Research Article As the number of global coronavirus disease (COVID-19) cases increases, the number of imported cases is gradually rising. Furthermore, there is no reduction in domestic outbreaks. To assess the risks from imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea, we suggest using the daily risk score. Confirmed COVID-19 cases reported by John Hopkins University Center, roaming data collected from Korea Telecom, and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker index were included in calculating the risk score. The risk score was highly correlated with imported COVID-19 cases after 12 days. To forecast daily imported COVID-19 cases after 12 days in South Korea, we developed prediction models using simple linear regression and autoregressive integrated moving average, including exogenous variables (ARIMAX). In the validation set, the root mean squared error of the linear regression model using the risk score was 6.2, which was lower than that of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA; 22.3) without the risk score as a reference. Correlation coefficient of ARIMAX using the risk score (0.925) was higher than that of ARIMA (0.899). A possible reason for this time lag of 12 days between imported cases and the risk score could be the delay that occurs before the effect of government policies such as closure of airports or lockdown of cities. Roaming data could help warn roaming users regarding their COVID-19 risk status and inform the national health agency of possible high-risk areas for domestic outbreaks. Public Library of Science 2020-11-04 /pmc/articles/PMC7641397/ /pubmed/33147252 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241466 Text en © 2020 Choi, Ahn http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Choi, Soo Beom
Ahn, Insung
Forecasting imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea using mobile roaming data
title Forecasting imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea using mobile roaming data
title_full Forecasting imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea using mobile roaming data
title_fullStr Forecasting imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea using mobile roaming data
title_full_unstemmed Forecasting imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea using mobile roaming data
title_short Forecasting imported COVID-19 cases in South Korea using mobile roaming data
title_sort forecasting imported covid-19 cases in south korea using mobile roaming data
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7641397/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33147252
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0241466
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