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Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling
BACKGROUND: Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people’s health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population’s needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies...
Autores principales: | , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
BioMed Central
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7643472/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33153487 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12960-020-00524-5 |
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author | Morii, Yasuhiro Furuta, Seiichi Ishikawa, Tomoki Fujiwara, Kensuke Yamashina, Hiroko Ogasawara, Katsuhiko |
author_facet | Morii, Yasuhiro Furuta, Seiichi Ishikawa, Tomoki Fujiwara, Kensuke Yamashina, Hiroko Ogasawara, Katsuhiko |
author_sort | Morii, Yasuhiro |
collection | PubMed |
description | BACKGROUND: Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people’s health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population’s needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists. METHODS: The future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015–2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists. RESULTS: The projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist. CONCLUSION: Optimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015–2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversupply after 2025. Refinements of the projection model should be conducted since the related factors such as the roles of pharmacists will change over time. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7643472 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | BioMed Central |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-76434722020-11-06 Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling Morii, Yasuhiro Furuta, Seiichi Ishikawa, Tomoki Fujiwara, Kensuke Yamashina, Hiroko Ogasawara, Katsuhiko Hum Resour Health Research BACKGROUND: Pharmacists play an important role in promoting people’s health in Japan, which has an aging population. Hence, it is necessary that the distribution of pharmacists meets the population’s needs in each region. This study projects the future supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies to consider an optimal distribution of pharmacists. METHODS: The future supply of pharmacists working in pharmacies in Hokkaido is projected using system dynamics modeling, according to their career path. The demand is projected based on the number of prescriptions, sourced from publicly available sources. The analysis period is 2015–2040. The estimated demand is converted into the number of pharmacists and the sufficiency is evaluated using sufficiency ratio (supply/demand ratio). Sensitivity analyses of the sufficiency ratio were conducted to estimate the effects of changes in parameters such as national exam pass rate, enrollments, attrition rates, the number of prescriptions per pharmacist, and diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists. RESULTS: The projected supply, in 2025 and 2040, is 1.24 and 1.56 times, respectively, as that in 2015 and the demand is 1.11 and 0.98 times, respectively. In 2015, although the sufficiency ratio in Hokkaido overall is 1.19, the ratios are higher in urban medical areas and lower than 1 in rural medical areas, such as Minamihiyama, Emmon, and Nemuro. By 2040, the sufficiency ratios are greater than 1 for all areas except for Emmon and higher than 2 in some areas. The sensitivity analyses found that the sufficiency ratio was most sensitive to diffusion of newly licensed pharmacists and the number of prescriptions per pharmacist. CONCLUSION: Optimal distribution should be considered, as the results reveal a possible shortage in the number of pharmacists in rural medical areas in 2015–2025. Conversely, as the demand is projected to decrease after 2025 with a population decrease, future supply should be determined in order not to cause an oversupply after 2025. Refinements of the projection model should be conducted since the related factors such as the roles of pharmacists will change over time. BioMed Central 2020-11-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7643472/ /pubmed/33153487 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12960-020-00524-5 Text en © The Author(s) 2020 Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. |
spellingShingle | Research Morii, Yasuhiro Furuta, Seiichi Ishikawa, Tomoki Fujiwara, Kensuke Yamashina, Hiroko Ogasawara, Katsuhiko Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
title | Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
title_full | Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
title_fullStr | Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
title_full_unstemmed | Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
title_short | Projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
title_sort | projecting supply and demand for pharmacists in pharmacies based on the number of prescriptions and system dynamics modeling |
topic | Research |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7643472/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33153487 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12960-020-00524-5 |
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