A simple and clinically applicable model to predict liver-related morbidity after hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIM: Hepatic resection is a treatment option for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, factors associated with candidacy for resection and predictive of liver-related morbidity after resection for HCC remain unclear. This study aimed to assess candidacy for liver resection in patients with HCC and to design a model predictive of liver-related morbidity after resection. METHODS: A retrospective analysis of 1,565 patients who underwent liver resection for HCC between January 2016 and December 2017 was performed. The primary outcome was liver-related morbidity, including post-hepatectomy biochemical dysfunction (PHBD), ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, rescue liver transplantation, and death from any cause within 90 days. PHBD was defined as international normalized ratio (INR) > 1.5 or hyperbilirubinemia (> 2.9 mg/dL) on postoperative day ≥ 5. RESULTS: The 1,565 patients included 1,258 (80.4%) males and 307 (19.6%) females with a mean age of 58.3 years. Of these patients, 646 (41.3%) and 919 (58.7%) patients underwent major and minor liver resection, respectively. Liver-related morbidity was observed in 133 (8.5%) patients, including 77 and 56 patients who underwent major and minor resection, respectively. A total of 83 (5.3%) patients developed PHBD. Multivariate analysis identified cut-off values of the platelet count, serum albumin concentration, and ICG R15 value for predicting liver-related morbidity after resection. A model predicting postoperative liver-related morbidity was developed, which included seven factors: male sex, age ≥ 55 years, ICG R15 value ≥ 15%, major resection, platelet count < 150,000/mm(3), serum albumin concentration < 3.5 g/dL, and INR > 1.1. CONCLUSION: Hepatic resection for HCC was safe with 90-day liver-related morbidity and mortality rates of 8.5% and 0.8%, respectively. The developed point-based scoring system with seven factors could allow the prediction of the risk of liver-related morbidity after resection for HCC.