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Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation

OBJECTIVES: In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must be blocked early. This study attempted to ver...

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Autores principales: Kwon, Okyu, Son, Woo-Sik, Kim, Jin Yong, Kim, Jong-Hun
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Korean Society of Epidemiology 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7644942/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32580532
http://dx.doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020045
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author Kwon, Okyu
Son, Woo-Sik
Kim, Jin Yong
Kim, Jong-Hun
author_facet Kwon, Okyu
Son, Woo-Sik
Kim, Jin Yong
Kim, Jong-Hun
author_sort Kwon, Okyu
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must be blocked early. This study attempted to verify the intervention effects on the spread of an infectious disease by using these measures in a mathematical model. METHODS: We used the susceptible-infectious-recovery (SIR) model for a virtual population group connected by a special structured network. In the model, the infected state (I) was divided into I in which the infection is undetected and I(x) in which the infection is detected. The probability of transitioning from an I state to I(x) can be viewed as the rate at which an infected person is found. We assumed that only those connected to each other in the network can cause infection. In addition, this study attempted to evaluate the effects of isolation by temporarily removing the connection among these people. RESULTS: In Scenario 1, only the infected are isolated; in Scenario 2, those who are connected to an infected person and are also found to be infected are isolated as well. In Scenario 3, everyone connected to an infected person are isolated. In Scenario 3, it was possible to effectively suppress the infectious disease even with a relatively slow rate of diagnosis and relatively high infection rate. CONCLUSIONS: During the epidemic, quick identification of the infected is helpful. In addition, it was possible to quantitatively show through a simulation evaluation that the management of infected individuals as well as those who are connected greatly helped to suppress the spread of infectious diseases.
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spelling pubmed-76449422020-11-16 Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation Kwon, Okyu Son, Woo-Sik Kim, Jin Yong Kim, Jong-Hun Epidemiol Health COVID-19 OBJECTIVES: In 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) respiratory infection is spreading in Korea. In order to prevent the spread of an infectious disease, infected people must be quickly identified and isolated, and contact with the infected must be blocked early. This study attempted to verify the intervention effects on the spread of an infectious disease by using these measures in a mathematical model. METHODS: We used the susceptible-infectious-recovery (SIR) model for a virtual population group connected by a special structured network. In the model, the infected state (I) was divided into I in which the infection is undetected and I(x) in which the infection is detected. The probability of transitioning from an I state to I(x) can be viewed as the rate at which an infected person is found. We assumed that only those connected to each other in the network can cause infection. In addition, this study attempted to evaluate the effects of isolation by temporarily removing the connection among these people. RESULTS: In Scenario 1, only the infected are isolated; in Scenario 2, those who are connected to an infected person and are also found to be infected are isolated as well. In Scenario 3, everyone connected to an infected person are isolated. In Scenario 3, it was possible to effectively suppress the infectious disease even with a relatively slow rate of diagnosis and relatively high infection rate. CONCLUSIONS: During the epidemic, quick identification of the infected is helpful. In addition, it was possible to quantitatively show through a simulation evaluation that the management of infected individuals as well as those who are connected greatly helped to suppress the spread of infectious diseases. Korean Society of Epidemiology 2020-06-23 /pmc/articles/PMC7644942/ /pubmed/32580532 http://dx.doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020045 Text en ©2020, Korean Society of Epidemiology This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle COVID-19
Kwon, Okyu
Son, Woo-Sik
Kim, Jin Yong
Kim, Jong-Hun
Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation
title Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation
title_full Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation
title_fullStr Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation
title_full_unstemmed Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation
title_short Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation
title_sort intervention effects in the transmission of covid-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation
topic COVID-19
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7644942/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32580532
http://dx.doi.org/10.4178/epih.e2020045
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