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Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic

The COVID‐19 pandemic in a population modelled as a network wherein infection can propagate both via intra‐ and inter‐group interactions is simulated. The results emphasize the importance of diminishing the inter‐group infections in the effort of substantial flattening/delaying of the epi(demiologic...

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Autor principal: Bâldea, Ioan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7645871/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33173845
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/adts.202000132
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author Bâldea, Ioan
author_facet Bâldea, Ioan
author_sort Bâldea, Ioan
collection PubMed
description The COVID‐19 pandemic in a population modelled as a network wherein infection can propagate both via intra‐ and inter‐group interactions is simulated. The results emphasize the importance of diminishing the inter‐group infections in the effort of substantial flattening/delaying of the epi(demiologic) curve with concomitant mitigation of disastrous economy and social consequences. To exemplify, splitting a population into m (say, 5 or 10) noninteracting groups while keeping intra‐group interaction unchanged yields a stretched epidemiological curve having the maximum number of daily infections reduced and postponed in time by the same factor m (5 or 10). More generally, the study suggests a practical approach to fight against SARS‐ CoV‐ 2 virus spread based on population splitting into groups and minimizing intermingling between them. This strategy can be pursued by large‐scale infrastructure reorganization of activity at different levels in big logistic units (e.g., large productive networks, factories, enterprises, warehouses, schools, (seasonal) harvest work). Importantly, unlike total lockdown, the proposed approach prevents economic ruin and keeps social life at a more bearable level than distancing everyone from anyone. The declaration for the first time in Europe that COVID‐19 epidemic ended in the two‐million population Slovenia may be taken as support for the strategy proposed here.
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spelling pubmed-76458712020-11-06 Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic Bâldea, Ioan Adv Theory Simul Full Papers The COVID‐19 pandemic in a population modelled as a network wherein infection can propagate both via intra‐ and inter‐group interactions is simulated. The results emphasize the importance of diminishing the inter‐group infections in the effort of substantial flattening/delaying of the epi(demiologic) curve with concomitant mitigation of disastrous economy and social consequences. To exemplify, splitting a population into m (say, 5 or 10) noninteracting groups while keeping intra‐group interaction unchanged yields a stretched epidemiological curve having the maximum number of daily infections reduced and postponed in time by the same factor m (5 or 10). More generally, the study suggests a practical approach to fight against SARS‐ CoV‐ 2 virus spread based on population splitting into groups and minimizing intermingling between them. This strategy can be pursued by large‐scale infrastructure reorganization of activity at different levels in big logistic units (e.g., large productive networks, factories, enterprises, warehouses, schools, (seasonal) harvest work). Importantly, unlike total lockdown, the proposed approach prevents economic ruin and keeps social life at a more bearable level than distancing everyone from anyone. The declaration for the first time in Europe that COVID‐19 epidemic ended in the two‐million population Slovenia may be taken as support for the strategy proposed here. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2020-10-29 2020-12 /pmc/articles/PMC7645871/ /pubmed/33173845 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/adts.202000132 Text en © 2020 The Authors. Advanced Theory and Simulations published by Wiley‐VCH GmbH https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
spellingShingle Full Papers
Bâldea, Ioan
Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic
title Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic
title_full Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic
title_fullStr Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic
title_full_unstemmed Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic
title_short Suppression of Groups Intermingling as an Appealing Option for Flattening and Delaying the Epidemiological Curve While Allowing Economic and Social Life at a Bearable Level during the COVID‐19 Pandemic
title_sort suppression of groups intermingling as an appealing option for flattening and delaying the epidemiological curve while allowing economic and social life at a bearable level during the covid‐19 pandemic
topic Full Papers
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7645871/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33173845
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/adts.202000132
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