MRI-based machine learning radiomics can predict HER2 expression level and pathologic response after neoadjuvant therapy in HER2 overexpressing breast cancer

BACKGROUND: To use clinical and MRI radiomic features coupled with machine learning to assess HER2 expression level and predict pathologic response (pCR) in HER2 overexpressing breast cancer patients receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). METHODS: This retrospective study included 311 patients. pCR was defined as no residual invasive carcinoma in the breast or axillary lymph nodes (ypT0/isN0). Radiomics/statistical analysis was performed using MATLAB and CERR software. After ROC and correlation analysis, selected radiomics parameters were advanced to machine learning modelling alongside clinical MRI-based parameters (lesion type, multifocality, size, nodal status). For predicting pCR, the data was split into a training and test set (80:20). FINDINGS: The overall pCR rate was 60.5% (188/311). The final model to predict HER2 heterogeneity utilised three MRI parameters (two clinical, one radiomic) for a sensitivity of 99.3% (277/279), specificity of 81.3% (26/32), and diagnostic accuracy of 97.4% (303/311). The final model to predict pCR included six MRI parameters (two clinical, four radiomic) for a sensitivity of 86.5% (32/37), specificity of 80.0% (20/25), and diagnostic accuracy of 83.9% (52/62) (test set); these results were independent of age and ER status, and outperformed the best model developed using clinical parameters only (p=0.029, comparison of proportion Chi-squared test). INTERPRETATION: The machine learning models, including both clinical and radiomics MRI features, can be used to assess HER2 expression level and can predict pCR after NAC in HER2 overexpressing breast cancer patients. FUNDING: NIH/NCI (P30CA008748), Susan G. Komen Foundation, Breast Cancer Research Foundation, Spanish Foundation Alfonso Martin Escudero, European School of Radiology.