Future Patient Incidence in Hemato-Oncology: A Study Using Data from Cancer Registries in Japan

PURPOSE: The distribution of patients with hematological malignancies is expected to change markedly in the future due to aging of the Japanese population. We assessed the expected incidence rates of leukemia, malignant lymphoma, and multiple myeloma using national population estimates and data from the Kanagawa Cancer Registry. PATIENTS AND METHODS: To evaluate the effects of community aging, we compared expected future incidences of hematological malignancies in Kanagawa with other three areas, namely the Yamagata, Osaka, and Nagasaki prefectures, which have different populations and predicted aging rates. RESULTS: The total number of patients newly diagnosed with hematological malignancy in Kanagawa in 2010 was 1970. This was predicted to increase to 2581 by 2025 and to 2712 by 2040. Trends were very similar for all three hematological malignancies. These incidence rates were predicted to increase continuously in patients aged ≥65 years from 2010 to 2040, with a 169% increase in leukemia, a 167% increase in malignant lymphoma, and a 169% increase in multiple myeloma. A continuous increase in the population aged ≥65 years was also noted in the other three prefectures. CONCLUSION: The distribution demographic of patients with hematological malignancies is expected to change in the future as the number of elderly patients increases.