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Robustness analysis in an inter-cities mobility network: modeling municipal, state and federal initiatives as failures and attacks toward SARS-CoV-2 containment

We present a robustness analysis of an inter-cities mobility complex network, motivated by the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic and the seek for proper containment strategies. Brazilian data from 2016 are used to build a network with more than five thousand cities (nodes) and twenty-seven states w...

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Autores principales: Freitas, Vander L.S., Moreira, Gladston J.P., Santos, Leonardo B.L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: PeerJ Inc. 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7649015/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33194438
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10287
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author Freitas, Vander L.S.
Moreira, Gladston J.P.
Santos, Leonardo B.L.
author_facet Freitas, Vander L.S.
Moreira, Gladston J.P.
Santos, Leonardo B.L.
author_sort Freitas, Vander L.S.
collection PubMed
description We present a robustness analysis of an inter-cities mobility complex network, motivated by the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic and the seek for proper containment strategies. Brazilian data from 2016 are used to build a network with more than five thousand cities (nodes) and twenty-seven states with the edges representing the weekly flow of people between cities via terrestrial transports. Nodes are systematically isolated (removed from the network) either at random (failures) or guided by specific strategies (targeted attacks), and the impacts are assessed with three metrics: the number of components, the size of the giant component, and the total remaining flow of people. We propose strategies to identify which regions should be isolated first and their impact on people mobility. The results are compared with the so-called reactive strategy, which consists of isolating regions ordered by the date the first case of COVID-19 appeared. We assume that the nodes’ failures abstract individual municipal and state initiatives that are independent and possess a certain level of unpredictability. Differently, the targeted attacks are related to centralized strategies led by the federal government in agreement with municipalities and states. Removing a node means completely restricting the mobility of people between the referred city/state and the rest of the network. Results reveal that random failures do not cause a high impact on mobility restraint, but the coordinated isolation of specific cities with targeted attacks is crucial to detach entire network areas and thus prevent spreading. Moreover, the targeted attacks perform better than the reactive strategy for the three analyzed robustness metrics.
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spelling pubmed-76490152020-11-12 Robustness analysis in an inter-cities mobility network: modeling municipal, state and federal initiatives as failures and attacks toward SARS-CoV-2 containment Freitas, Vander L.S. Moreira, Gladston J.P. Santos, Leonardo B.L. PeerJ Epidemiology We present a robustness analysis of an inter-cities mobility complex network, motivated by the challenge of the COVID-19 pandemic and the seek for proper containment strategies. Brazilian data from 2016 are used to build a network with more than five thousand cities (nodes) and twenty-seven states with the edges representing the weekly flow of people between cities via terrestrial transports. Nodes are systematically isolated (removed from the network) either at random (failures) or guided by specific strategies (targeted attacks), and the impacts are assessed with three metrics: the number of components, the size of the giant component, and the total remaining flow of people. We propose strategies to identify which regions should be isolated first and their impact on people mobility. The results are compared with the so-called reactive strategy, which consists of isolating regions ordered by the date the first case of COVID-19 appeared. We assume that the nodes’ failures abstract individual municipal and state initiatives that are independent and possess a certain level of unpredictability. Differently, the targeted attacks are related to centralized strategies led by the federal government in agreement with municipalities and states. Removing a node means completely restricting the mobility of people between the referred city/state and the rest of the network. Results reveal that random failures do not cause a high impact on mobility restraint, but the coordinated isolation of specific cities with targeted attacks is crucial to detach entire network areas and thus prevent spreading. Moreover, the targeted attacks perform better than the reactive strategy for the three analyzed robustness metrics. PeerJ Inc. 2020-11-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7649015/ /pubmed/33194438 http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10287 Text en © 2020 Freitas et al. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, reproduction and adaptation in any medium and for any purpose provided that it is properly attributed. For attribution, the original author(s), title, publication source (PeerJ) and either DOI or URL of the article must be cited.
spellingShingle Epidemiology
Freitas, Vander L.S.
Moreira, Gladston J.P.
Santos, Leonardo B.L.
Robustness analysis in an inter-cities mobility network: modeling municipal, state and federal initiatives as failures and attacks toward SARS-CoV-2 containment
title Robustness analysis in an inter-cities mobility network: modeling municipal, state and federal initiatives as failures and attacks toward SARS-CoV-2 containment
title_full Robustness analysis in an inter-cities mobility network: modeling municipal, state and federal initiatives as failures and attacks toward SARS-CoV-2 containment
title_fullStr Robustness analysis in an inter-cities mobility network: modeling municipal, state and federal initiatives as failures and attacks toward SARS-CoV-2 containment
title_full_unstemmed Robustness analysis in an inter-cities mobility network: modeling municipal, state and federal initiatives as failures and attacks toward SARS-CoV-2 containment
title_short Robustness analysis in an inter-cities mobility network: modeling municipal, state and federal initiatives as failures and attacks toward SARS-CoV-2 containment
title_sort robustness analysis in an inter-cities mobility network: modeling municipal, state and federal initiatives as failures and attacks toward sars-cov-2 containment
topic Epidemiology
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7649015/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33194438
http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.10287
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