Cross-national variations in COVID-19 outbreak in West Africa: Where does Nigeria stand in the pandemic?

Nigeria is currently the worst COVID-19 affected country in West Africa in terms of morbidity and mortality amid ECOWAS’s recent proclamation of the country as the region’s COVID-19 Response Champion. It is against this background that this paper analysed the geographical distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases and fatalities in West Africa, with a view to understanding why Nigeria is at the heart of the pandemic in the sub-continent. The research relied on COVID-19 data and other health, demographic, transport, economic indicators from published sources. Pearson correlation technique and simple linear regressions were useful in discerning associations between COVID-19 and explanatory factors in West Africa. In order of importance, Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal were the top three on the morbidity list while Nigeria, Mali and Niger had the largest number of fatalities as at June 11, 2020. Results show that the population size and air traffic had significant impact on both COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in West Africa. In addition, Nigeria’s large population size and high air traffic volume did not only increase its susceptibility to the viral infection but also accounted for its being an outlier in the sub-continent. The study recommends that a cautious and gradual reopening of the borders should be considered by member states of the sub-region while behavioural avoidance measures are being enforced till a vaccine is found. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s41324-020-00371-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.