Predicting nutrient excretion from dairy cows on smallholder farms in Indonesia using readily available farm data

OBJECTIVE: This study was conducted to provide models to accurately predict nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) excretion of dairy cows on smallholder farms in Indonesia based on readily available farm data. METHODS: The generic model in this study is based on the principles of the Lucas equation, describing the relation between dry matter intake (DMI) and faecal N excretion to predict the quantity of faecal N (Q(FN)). Excretion of urinary N and faecal P were calculated based on National Research Council recommendations for dairy cows. A farm survey was conducted to collect input parameters for the models. The data set was used to calibrate the model to predict Q(FN) for the specific case. The model was validated by comparing the predicted quantity of faecal N with the actual quantity of faecal N (Q(FNACT)) based on measurements, and the calibrated model was compared to the Lucas equation. The models were used to predict N and P excretion of all 144 dairy cows in the data set. RESULTS: Our estimate of true N digestibility equalled the standard value of 92% in the original Lucas equation, whereas our estimate of metabolic faecal N was −0.60 g/100 g DMI, with the standard value being −0.61 g/100 g DMI. Results of the model validation showed that the R(2) was 0.63, the MAE was 15 g/animal/d (17% from Q(FNACT)), and the RMSE was 20 g/animal/d (22% from Q(FNACT)). We predicted that the total N excretion of dairy cows in Indonesia was on average 197 g/animal/d, whereas P excretion was on average 56 g/animal/d. CONCLUSION: The proposed models can be used with reasonable accuracy to predict N and P excretion of dairy cattle on smallholder farms in Indonesia, which can contribute to improving manure management and reduce environmental issues related to nutrient losses.