Predictive Modelling of Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Spectacled Bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Amazonas, Northeast Peru

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is threatened by human activities, despite being a key species for conservation. In our study, the sightings and tracks for spectacled bear were collected, key environmental variables affecting its distribution were identified, and its distribution was predicted under both current and future (2050 and 2070) conditions in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. Under current conditions, areas with “high”, “moderate” and “low” probability for the spectacled bear distribution cover about 1.99% (836.22 km(2)), 14.46% (6081.88 km(2)) and 20.73% (8718.98 km(2)) of Amazonas, respectively. Under all future conditions, the “high” probability area will increase, while the “moderate” and “low” probability areas, as well as total area (sum of “high”, “moderate” and “low”), will decrease. The, protected natural areas in Amazonas, currently and in the future, do not cover most of the important habitats for the spectacled bear. Therefore, to effectively conserve this species, it is strongly recommended that areas with “high” (even “moderate”) probability and the main ecosystems it inhabits should be designated as priority areas for research and conservation (even in natural protected areas). We assume that our study will make a strong contribution towards the sustainable conservation for spectacled bear under such threaten conditions. ABSTRACT: The spectacled, or Andean, bear (Tremarctos ornatus) is classified as vulnerable by the IUCN due to climate change and human-induced habitat fragmentation. There is an urgent need for the conservation of spectacled bear at real time. However, the lack of knowledge about the distribution of this species is considered as one of the major limitations for decision-making and sustainable conservation. In this study, 92 geo-referenced records of the spectacled bear, 12 environmental variables and the MaxEnt entropy modelling have been used for predictive modelling for the current and future (2050 and 2070) potential distribution of the spectacled bear in Amazonas, northeastern Peru. The areas of “high”, “moderate” and “low” potential habitat under current conditions cover 1.99% (836.22 km(2)), 14.46% (6081.88 km(2)) and 20.73% (8718.98 km(2)) of the Amazon, respectively. “High” potential habitat will increase under all climate change scenarios, while “moderate” and “low” potential habitat, as well as total habitat, will decrease over the time. The “moderate”, “low” and total potential habitat are distributed mainly in Yunga montane forest, combined grasslands/rangelands and secondary vegetation and Yunga altimontane (rain) forest, while “high” potential habitat is also concentrated in the Jalca. The overall outcome showed that the most of the important habitats of the spectacled bear are not part of the protected natural areas of Amazonas, under current as well as under future scenarios.