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Scenarios to Manage the Demand for N95 Respirators for Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND: By estimating N95 respirator demand based on simulated epidemics, we aim to assist planning efforts requiring estimations of respirator demand for the healthcare system to continue operating safely in the coming months. METHODS: We assess respiratory needs over the course of mild, modera...

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Autores principales: Sun, Yinxiaohe, Otomaru, Hirono, Quaye, Sharon Esi Duoduwa, Somani, Jyoti, Bagdasarian, Natasha, Beh, Darius L L, Fisher, Dale A, Cook, Alex R, Dickens, Borame L
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Dove 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7652237/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33177904
http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/RMHP.S275496
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author Sun, Yinxiaohe
Otomaru, Hirono
Quaye, Sharon Esi Duoduwa
Somani, Jyoti
Bagdasarian, Natasha
Beh, Darius L L
Fisher, Dale A
Cook, Alex R
Dickens, Borame L
author_facet Sun, Yinxiaohe
Otomaru, Hirono
Quaye, Sharon Esi Duoduwa
Somani, Jyoti
Bagdasarian, Natasha
Beh, Darius L L
Fisher, Dale A
Cook, Alex R
Dickens, Borame L
author_sort Sun, Yinxiaohe
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: By estimating N95 respirator demand based on simulated epidemics, we aim to assist planning efforts requiring estimations of respirator demand for the healthcare system to continue operating safely in the coming months. METHODS: We assess respiratory needs over the course of mild, moderate and severe epidemic scenarios within Singapore as a case study using a transmission dynamic model. The number of respirators required within the respiratory isolation wards and intensive care units was estimated over the course of the epidemic. We also considered single-use, extended-use and prolonged-use strategies for N95 respirators for use by healthcare workers treating suspected but negative (misclassified) or confirmed COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: Depending on the confirmed to misclassified case ratio, from 1:0 to 1:10, a range of 117.1 million to 1.1 billion masks are required for single-use. This decreases to 71.6–784.4 million for extended-use and 12.8–148.2 million for prolonged-use, representing a 31.8–38.9% and 86.5–89.1% reduction, respectively. CONCLUSION: An extended-use policy should be considered when short-term supply chains are strained but planning measures are in place to ensure long-term availability. With severe shortage expectations from a severe epidemic, as some European countries have experienced, prolonged use is necessary to prolong supply.
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spelling pubmed-76522372020-11-10 Scenarios to Manage the Demand for N95 Respirators for Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic Sun, Yinxiaohe Otomaru, Hirono Quaye, Sharon Esi Duoduwa Somani, Jyoti Bagdasarian, Natasha Beh, Darius L L Fisher, Dale A Cook, Alex R Dickens, Borame L Risk Manag Healthc Policy Original Research BACKGROUND: By estimating N95 respirator demand based on simulated epidemics, we aim to assist planning efforts requiring estimations of respirator demand for the healthcare system to continue operating safely in the coming months. METHODS: We assess respiratory needs over the course of mild, moderate and severe epidemic scenarios within Singapore as a case study using a transmission dynamic model. The number of respirators required within the respiratory isolation wards and intensive care units was estimated over the course of the epidemic. We also considered single-use, extended-use and prolonged-use strategies for N95 respirators for use by healthcare workers treating suspected but negative (misclassified) or confirmed COVID-19 patients. RESULTS: Depending on the confirmed to misclassified case ratio, from 1:0 to 1:10, a range of 117.1 million to 1.1 billion masks are required for single-use. This decreases to 71.6–784.4 million for extended-use and 12.8–148.2 million for prolonged-use, representing a 31.8–38.9% and 86.5–89.1% reduction, respectively. CONCLUSION: An extended-use policy should be considered when short-term supply chains are strained but planning measures are in place to ensure long-term availability. With severe shortage expectations from a severe epidemic, as some European countries have experienced, prolonged use is necessary to prolong supply. Dove 2020-11-05 /pmc/articles/PMC7652237/ /pubmed/33177904 http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/RMHP.S275496 Text en © 2020 Sun et al. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/ This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited. The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/). By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed. For permission for commercial use of this work, please see paragraphs 4.2 and 5 of our Terms (https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php).
spellingShingle Original Research
Sun, Yinxiaohe
Otomaru, Hirono
Quaye, Sharon Esi Duoduwa
Somani, Jyoti
Bagdasarian, Natasha
Beh, Darius L L
Fisher, Dale A
Cook, Alex R
Dickens, Borame L
Scenarios to Manage the Demand for N95 Respirators for Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic
title Scenarios to Manage the Demand for N95 Respirators for Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_full Scenarios to Manage the Demand for N95 Respirators for Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_fullStr Scenarios to Manage the Demand for N95 Respirators for Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_full_unstemmed Scenarios to Manage the Demand for N95 Respirators for Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_short Scenarios to Manage the Demand for N95 Respirators for Healthcare Workers During the COVID-19 Pandemic
title_sort scenarios to manage the demand for n95 respirators for healthcare workers during the covid-19 pandemic
topic Original Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7652237/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33177904
http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/RMHP.S275496
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