Evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of a ctDNA methylation classifier for incidental lung nodules: protocol for a prospective, observational, and multicenter clinical trial of 10,560 cases

BACKGROUND: Lung nodules are a diagnostic challenge. Current clinical management of lung nodule patients is inefficient and therefore causes patient misclassification, which increases healthcare expenses. However, a precise and robust lung nodule classifier to minimize discomfort for patients and healthcare costs is still lacking. The aim of the present protocol is to evaluate the effectiveness of using a liquid biopsy classifier to diagnose nodules compared to physician estimates and whether the classifier can reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies in benign cases. METHODS: A prospective cohort of 10,560 patients enrolled at 23 clinical centers in China with non-calcified pulmonary nodules, ranging from 0.5 to 3 cm in diameter, indicated by LDCT or CT will be included. After signed consent forms, the participants’ pulmonary nodules will be assessed using three evaluation tools: (I) physician cancer probability estimates (II) validated lung nodule risk models, including Mayo Clinic and Veteran’s Affairs models (III) ctDNA methylation classifier previously established. Each patient will undergo LDCT/CT follow-ups for 2 to 3 years and their information and one blood sample will be collected at baseline, 3, 6, 12, 24 and 36 months. The primary study outcomes will be the diagnostic accuracy of the methylation classifier in the cohort. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) will be used to compare the diagnostic value of each testing tool in differentiating benign and malignant pulmonary nodules. DISCUSSION: We are conducting an observational study to explore the accuracy of using a ctDNA methylation classifier for incidental lung nodules diagnosis TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov NCT03651986.