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Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya

Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Kenya reported its first case on March 13, 2020 and by March 16, 2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmission and flatten the epidemic curve. An age-structured compartmental model was...

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Autores principales: Kimathi, Mark, Mwalili, Samuel, Ojiambo, Viona, Gathungu, Duncan Kioi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: KeAi Publishing 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7655033/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33200107
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.012
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author Kimathi, Mark
Mwalili, Samuel
Ojiambo, Viona
Gathungu, Duncan Kioi
author_facet Kimathi, Mark
Mwalili, Samuel
Ojiambo, Viona
Gathungu, Duncan Kioi
author_sort Kimathi, Mark
collection PubMed
description Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Kenya reported its first case on March 13, 2020 and by March 16, 2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmission and flatten the epidemic curve. An age-structured compartmental model was developed to assess the impact of the strategies on COVID-19 severity and burden. Contacts between different ages are incorporated via contact matrices. Simulation results show that 45% reduction in contacts for 60-days period resulted to 11.5–13% reduction of infections severity and deaths, while for the 190-days period yielded 18.8–22.7% reduction. The peak of infections in the 60-days mitigation was higher and happened about 2 months after the relaxation of mitigation as compared to that of the 190-days mitigation, which happened a month after mitigations were relaxed. Low numbers of cases in children under 15 years was attributed to high number of asymptomatic cases. High numbers of cases are reported in the 15–29 years and 30–59 years age bands. Two mitigation periods, considered in the study, resulted to reductions in severe and critical cases, attack rates, hospital and ICU bed demands, as well as deaths, with the 190-days period giving higher reductions.
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spelling pubmed-76550332020-11-12 Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya Kimathi, Mark Mwalili, Samuel Ojiambo, Viona Gathungu, Duncan Kioi Infect Dis Model Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. Kenya reported its first case on March 13, 2020 and by March 16, 2020 she instituted physical distancing strategies to reduce transmission and flatten the epidemic curve. An age-structured compartmental model was developed to assess the impact of the strategies on COVID-19 severity and burden. Contacts between different ages are incorporated via contact matrices. Simulation results show that 45% reduction in contacts for 60-days period resulted to 11.5–13% reduction of infections severity and deaths, while for the 190-days period yielded 18.8–22.7% reduction. The peak of infections in the 60-days mitigation was higher and happened about 2 months after the relaxation of mitigation as compared to that of the 190-days mitigation, which happened a month after mitigations were relaxed. Low numbers of cases in children under 15 years was attributed to high number of asymptomatic cases. High numbers of cases are reported in the 15–29 years and 30–59 years age bands. Two mitigation periods, considered in the study, resulted to reductions in severe and critical cases, attack rates, hospital and ICU bed demands, as well as deaths, with the 190-days period giving higher reductions. KeAi Publishing 2020-11-10 /pmc/articles/PMC7655033/ /pubmed/33200107 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.012 Text en © 2020 The Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
Kimathi, Mark
Mwalili, Samuel
Ojiambo, Viona
Gathungu, Duncan Kioi
Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya
title Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya
title_full Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya
title_fullStr Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya
title_full_unstemmed Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya
title_short Age-structured model for COVID-19: Effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in Kenya
title_sort age-structured model for covid-19: effectiveness of social distancing and contact reduction in kenya
topic Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7655033/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33200107
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.10.012
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