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Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model

OBJECTIVE: To develop a new nomogram tool for predicting survival in middle-aged and elderly patients with rectal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: A total of 6,116 patients were randomly assigned in a 7:3 ratio to training and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressi...

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Autores principales: Liu, Hao, Lv, Liang, Qu, Yidan, Zheng, Ziweng, Zhao, Junjiang, Liu, Bo, Zhang, Dasen, Wang, Hexiang, Zhang, Jian
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Neoplasia Press 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7658496/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33186890
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranon.2020.100938
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author Liu, Hao
Lv, Liang
Qu, Yidan
Zheng, Ziweng
Zhao, Junjiang
Liu, Bo
Zhang, Dasen
Wang, Hexiang
Zhang, Jian
author_facet Liu, Hao
Lv, Liang
Qu, Yidan
Zheng, Ziweng
Zhao, Junjiang
Liu, Bo
Zhang, Dasen
Wang, Hexiang
Zhang, Jian
author_sort Liu, Hao
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVE: To develop a new nomogram tool for predicting survival in middle-aged and elderly patients with rectal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: A total of 6,116 patients were randomly assigned in a 7:3 ratio to training and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in the training set, and two nomogram prognostic models were constructed. The validity, accuracy, discrimination, predictive ability, and clinical utility of the models were assessed based on the concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC), Kaplan-Meier survival curve, and decision curve analyses. RESULTS: Predictors of OS and CSS were identified, and nomograms were successfully constructed. The calibration discrimination for both the OS and CSS nomogram prediction models was good (C-index: 0.763 and 0.787, respectively). The AUC showed excellent predictive performance, and the calibration curve exhibited significant predictive power for both nomograms. The time-dependent AUC showed that the predictive ability of the predictor-based nomogram was better than that of the TNM stage. The nomograms successfully discriminated high-, medium-, and low-risk patients for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality. The decision curve demonstrated that the nomograms are useful with respect to good decision power. CONCLUSION: Our nomogram survival prediction models may aid in evaluating the prognosis of middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma and guiding the selection of the clinical treatment measures.
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spelling pubmed-76584962020-11-17 Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model Liu, Hao Lv, Liang Qu, Yidan Zheng, Ziweng Zhao, Junjiang Liu, Bo Zhang, Dasen Wang, Hexiang Zhang, Jian Transl Oncol Original article OBJECTIVE: To develop a new nomogram tool for predicting survival in middle-aged and elderly patients with rectal adenocarcinoma. METHODS: A total of 6,116 patients were randomly assigned in a 7:3 ratio to training and validation cohorts. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors associated with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in the training set, and two nomogram prognostic models were constructed. The validity, accuracy, discrimination, predictive ability, and clinical utility of the models were assessed based on the concordance index (C-index), area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve, time-dependent area under the ROC curve (AUC), Kaplan-Meier survival curve, and decision curve analyses. RESULTS: Predictors of OS and CSS were identified, and nomograms were successfully constructed. The calibration discrimination for both the OS and CSS nomogram prediction models was good (C-index: 0.763 and 0.787, respectively). The AUC showed excellent predictive performance, and the calibration curve exhibited significant predictive power for both nomograms. The time-dependent AUC showed that the predictive ability of the predictor-based nomogram was better than that of the TNM stage. The nomograms successfully discriminated high-, medium-, and low-risk patients for all-cause and cancer-specific mortality. The decision curve demonstrated that the nomograms are useful with respect to good decision power. CONCLUSION: Our nomogram survival prediction models may aid in evaluating the prognosis of middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma and guiding the selection of the clinical treatment measures. Neoplasia Press 2020-11-10 /pmc/articles/PMC7658496/ /pubmed/33186890 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranon.2020.100938 Text en © 2020 The Authors http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Original article
Liu, Hao
Lv, Liang
Qu, Yidan
Zheng, Ziweng
Zhao, Junjiang
Liu, Bo
Zhang, Dasen
Wang, Hexiang
Zhang, Jian
Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model
title Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model
title_full Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model
title_fullStr Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model
title_short Prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model
title_sort prediction of cancer-specific survival and overall survival in middle-aged and older patients with rectal adenocarcinoma using a nomogram model
topic Original article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7658496/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33186890
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tranon.2020.100938
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