Increasing newly diagnosed inflammatory bowel disease and improving prognosis in China: a 30-year retrospective study from a single centre

BACKGROUND: We aimed to characterize the trends of prognosis in ulcerative colitis (UC) and Crohn’s disease (CD) in a Chinese tertiary hospital. METHODS: A 30-year retrospective cohort analysis was conducted at Peking Union Medical College Hospital. Consecutive patients newly diagnosed with UC or CD from 1985 to 2014 were included. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcomes included surgery and length of stay in hospital. The Pearson correlation coefficient was applied to determine the relationship between time and prognosis. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the risk factors for in-hospital mortality and surgery. RESULTS: In total, 1467 patients were included in this study (898 cases with UC and 569 cases with CD). Annual admissions for UC and CD have increased significantly over the last 30 years (UC, r = 0.918, P < 0.05; CD, r = 0.898, P < 0.05). Decreased in-hospital mortality was observed both in patients with UC and CD (UC, from 2.44 to 0.27%, r = − 0.827, P < 0.05; CD, from 12.50 to 0.00%, r = − 0.978, P < 0.05). A decreasing surgery rate was observed in patients with CD (r = − 0.847, P < 0.05), while an increasing surgery rate was observed in patients with UC (r = 0.956, P < 0.05). Shortened average lengths of hospital stay were observed in both UC and CD patients (UC, from 47.83 ± 34.35 to 23.58 ± 20.05 days, r = − 0.970, P < 0.05; CD, from 65.50 ± 50.57 to 26.41 ± 18.43 days, r = − 0.913, P < 0.05). Toxic megacolon and septic shock were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with UC. Intestinal fistula and intestinal perforation were independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with CD. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, the admissions of patients with UC and CD were increased, with significantly improved prognoses during the past 30 years.