The emerging ideological security dilemma between China and the U.S.

Historically, the impact of different ideologies on U.S.-China relations is determined by whether there is a strong strategic rationale for a positive relationship and whether China’s internal development is in line with the U.S. expectations. During the Trump era, U.S–China relations have become definitively more competitive, and the U.S. is disillusioned with China’s internal development. Consequently, the ideological factor becomes more pronounced in the bilateral relationship, and a certain degree of ideological competition may be inevitable. But this is and will likely remain limited in scope and intensity because neither side is bent on an ideological crusade or a Cold War-style ideological conflict. The current situation may best be characterized as a “security dilemma” in the ideological domain. It does not have to lead to the worst possible outcome that neither desires, but preventing such an outcome requires better understanding of each other’s intentions, increased appreciation for the impact of one’s own actions on the other’s insecurity, refraining from utilizing ideology for domestic mobilization, and prioritizing putting one’s own house in order.