COVID-19’s impact on the U.S. labor market as of September 2020

This paper summarizes the impact of COVID-19 (through mid-September 2020) on the U.S. labor market through the lens of measures found in monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation releases. It describes the pandemic’s impact thus far by looking at payroll jobs, the unemployment rate, a broader measure of job disruptions, and disparities by race and sex. The conclusion discusses forces that will drive outcomes in the coming months. The findings are as follows: (1) The COVID-19 shock was very abrupt and deep by historical standards, and headline numbers understate the magnitude of job disruptions. (2) The pace of the jobs recovery has slowed markedly since June. (3) The share of disrupted workers with ties to employers, which began very high, is falling rapidly, dimming prospects for further rapid recovery. (4) Hispanic, African American and women workers’ jobs were more disrupted than others’. (5) Prospects for a speedy jobs recovery depend strongly on the path of the pandemic and degree of fiscal stimulus, both aided by official statistics to guide decisions at all levels during this critical time.