Development and validation of a risk prediction model and scoring system for post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis

BACKGROUND: A few models have been proposed for the prediction of the risk of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography pancreatitis (PEP), but many include factors that are not assessed routinely. Herein, we intend to develop and validate a predictive model for the occurrence of PEP. METHODS: Data of patients who underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) from January 01, 2016 to May 16, 2019 (training set and internal test set) and from May 17, 2019 to December 25, 2019 (external test set) were retrospectively collected. The performance of the model was validated in the two validation cohorts. RESULTS: A total of 342 patients were included for the external test set, and 47 (13.7%) developed PEP. The variables included in the scoring system were gastrectomy history, high direct bilirubin (DBIL), high albumin (ALB), villous type of papillary orifice, nodular type of papillary orifice, pancreatic guidewire passages, precut sphincterotomy, and high operator experience. A total score >5 indicated high risk. In the external test set, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.718, the sensitivity was 0.723, and the specificity was 0.676. In the external test set, the probability of PEP was 6.1%, 17.0%, and 37.5% in patients with low (<0), moderate (0–5), and high (>5) risk scores, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study established a scoring system for predicting the risk of PEP using routinely measured clinical variables. Its application in routine work warrants further investigation.