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Dose-response Relation Deduced for Coronaviruses From Coronavirus Disease 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome: Meta-analysis Results and its Application for Infection Risk Assessment of Aerosol Transmission

BACKGROUND: A comprehensive understanding of the transmission routes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is of great importance to effectively control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the fundamental dose-response relation is missing for evaluat...

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Autores principales: Zhang, Xiaole, Wang, Jing
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7665418/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33119733
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1675
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author Zhang, Xiaole
Wang, Jing
author_facet Zhang, Xiaole
Wang, Jing
author_sort Zhang, Xiaole
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: A comprehensive understanding of the transmission routes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is of great importance to effectively control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the fundamental dose-response relation is missing for evaluation of the infection risk. METHODS: We developed a simple framework to integrate the a priori dose-response relation for SARS-CoV-2 based on mice experiments, the recent data on infection risk from a meta-analysis, and respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath to shed light on the dose-response relation for humans. The aerosol transmission infection risk was evaluated based on the dose-response model for a typical indoor environment. RESULTS: The developed dose-response relation is an exponential function with a constant k in the range of about 6.4 × 10(4) to 9.8 × 10(5) virus copies, which means that the infection risk caused by 1 virus copy in viral shedding is on the order of 10(–6) to 10(–5). The median infection risk via aerosol transmission with 1-hour exposure (10(–6) to 10(–4)) was significantly lower than the risk caused by close contact (10(–1)) in a room with an area of 10 to 400 m(2) with 1 infected individual in it and with a typical ventilation rate of 1 air change per hour. CONCLUSIONS: The infection risk caused by aerosol transmission was significantly lower than the risk caused by close contact. It is still necessary to be cautious for the potential aerosol transmission risk in small rooms with prolonged exposure duration.
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spelling pubmed-76654182020-11-16 Dose-response Relation Deduced for Coronaviruses From Coronavirus Disease 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome: Meta-analysis Results and its Application for Infection Risk Assessment of Aerosol Transmission Zhang, Xiaole Wang, Jing Clin Infect Dis Online Only Articles BACKGROUND: A comprehensive understanding of the transmission routes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is of great importance to effectively control the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, the fundamental dose-response relation is missing for evaluation of the infection risk. METHODS: We developed a simple framework to integrate the a priori dose-response relation for SARS-CoV-2 based on mice experiments, the recent data on infection risk from a meta-analysis, and respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath to shed light on the dose-response relation for humans. The aerosol transmission infection risk was evaluated based on the dose-response model for a typical indoor environment. RESULTS: The developed dose-response relation is an exponential function with a constant k in the range of about 6.4 × 10(4) to 9.8 × 10(5) virus copies, which means that the infection risk caused by 1 virus copy in viral shedding is on the order of 10(–6) to 10(–5). The median infection risk via aerosol transmission with 1-hour exposure (10(–6) to 10(–4)) was significantly lower than the risk caused by close contact (10(–1)) in a room with an area of 10 to 400 m(2) with 1 infected individual in it and with a typical ventilation rate of 1 air change per hour. CONCLUSIONS: The infection risk caused by aerosol transmission was significantly lower than the risk caused by close contact. It is still necessary to be cautious for the potential aerosol transmission risk in small rooms with prolonged exposure duration. Oxford University Press 2020-10-29 /pmc/articles/PMC7665418/ /pubmed/33119733 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1675 Text en © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) ), which permits non-commercial reproduction and distribution of the work, in any medium, provided the original work is not altered or transformed in any way, and that the work is properly cited. For commercial re-use, please contact journals.permissions@oup.com
spellingShingle Online Only Articles
Zhang, Xiaole
Wang, Jing
Dose-response Relation Deduced for Coronaviruses From Coronavirus Disease 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome: Meta-analysis Results and its Application for Infection Risk Assessment of Aerosol Transmission
title Dose-response Relation Deduced for Coronaviruses From Coronavirus Disease 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome: Meta-analysis Results and its Application for Infection Risk Assessment of Aerosol Transmission
title_full Dose-response Relation Deduced for Coronaviruses From Coronavirus Disease 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome: Meta-analysis Results and its Application for Infection Risk Assessment of Aerosol Transmission
title_fullStr Dose-response Relation Deduced for Coronaviruses From Coronavirus Disease 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome: Meta-analysis Results and its Application for Infection Risk Assessment of Aerosol Transmission
title_full_unstemmed Dose-response Relation Deduced for Coronaviruses From Coronavirus Disease 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome: Meta-analysis Results and its Application for Infection Risk Assessment of Aerosol Transmission
title_short Dose-response Relation Deduced for Coronaviruses From Coronavirus Disease 2019, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome: Meta-analysis Results and its Application for Infection Risk Assessment of Aerosol Transmission
title_sort dose-response relation deduced for coronaviruses from coronavirus disease 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and middle east respiratory syndrome: meta-analysis results and its application for infection risk assessment of aerosol transmission
topic Online Only Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7665418/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33119733
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa1675
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