Cargando…

Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function

We demonstrate that universal scaling behavior is observed in the current corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) spread, the COVID-19 pandemic, in various countries. We analyze the numbers of infected people who tested positive (cases) in selected eleven countries (Japan, USA, Russia, Brazil, China, Italy, Indon...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Ohnishi, Akira, Namekawa, Yusuke, Fukui, Tokuro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7665699/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ptep/ptaa148
_version_ 1783610022588055552
author Ohnishi, Akira
Namekawa, Yusuke
Fukui, Tokuro
author_facet Ohnishi, Akira
Namekawa, Yusuke
Fukui, Tokuro
author_sort Ohnishi, Akira
collection PubMed
description We demonstrate that universal scaling behavior is observed in the current corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) spread, the COVID-19 pandemic, in various countries. We analyze the numbers of infected people who tested positive (cases) in selected eleven countries (Japan, USA, Russia, Brazil, China, Italy, Indonesia, Spain, South Korea, UK, and Sweden). By using the double exponential function called the Gompertz function, f(G)(x) = exp(–e(–x)), the number of cases is well described as N(t) = N(0)f(G)(γ(t – t(0))), where N(0), γ and t(0) are the final number of cases, the damping rate of the infection probability and the peak time of the daily number of new cases, dN(t)/dt, respectively. The scaled data of cases in most of the analyzed countries are found to collapse onto a common scaling function f(G)(x) with x = γ(t – t(0)) being the scaling variable in the range of f(G)(x) ± 0.05. The recently proposed indicator so-called the K value, the increasing rate of cases in one week, is also found to show universal behavior. The mechanism for the Gompertz function to appear is discussed from the time dependence of the produced pion numbers in nucleus-nucleus collisions, which is also found to be described by the Gompertz function.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-7665699
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2020
publisher Oxford University Press
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-76656992020-11-16 Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function Ohnishi, Akira Namekawa, Yusuke Fukui, Tokuro Progress of Theoretical and Experimental Physics Paper We demonstrate that universal scaling behavior is observed in the current corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) spread, the COVID-19 pandemic, in various countries. We analyze the numbers of infected people who tested positive (cases) in selected eleven countries (Japan, USA, Russia, Brazil, China, Italy, Indonesia, Spain, South Korea, UK, and Sweden). By using the double exponential function called the Gompertz function, f(G)(x) = exp(–e(–x)), the number of cases is well described as N(t) = N(0)f(G)(γ(t – t(0))), where N(0), γ and t(0) are the final number of cases, the damping rate of the infection probability and the peak time of the daily number of new cases, dN(t)/dt, respectively. The scaled data of cases in most of the analyzed countries are found to collapse onto a common scaling function f(G)(x) with x = γ(t – t(0)) being the scaling variable in the range of f(G)(x) ± 0.05. The recently proposed indicator so-called the K value, the increasing rate of cases in one week, is also found to show universal behavior. The mechanism for the Gompertz function to appear is discussed from the time dependence of the produced pion numbers in nucleus-nucleus collisions, which is also found to be described by the Gompertz function. Oxford University Press 2020-10-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7665699/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ptep/ptaa148 Text en © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Physical Society of Japan. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Paper
Ohnishi, Akira
Namekawa, Yusuke
Fukui, Tokuro
Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function
title Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function
title_full Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function
title_fullStr Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function
title_full_unstemmed Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function
title_short Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function
title_sort universality in covid-19 spread in view of the gompertz function
topic Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7665699/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ptep/ptaa148
work_keys_str_mv AT ohnishiakira universalityincovid19spreadinviewofthegompertzfunction
AT namekawayusuke universalityincovid19spreadinviewofthegompertzfunction
AT fukuitokuro universalityincovid19spreadinviewofthegompertzfunction