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Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function
We demonstrate that universal scaling behavior is observed in the current corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) spread, the COVID-19 pandemic, in various countries. We analyze the numbers of infected people who tested positive (cases) in selected eleven countries (Japan, USA, Russia, Brazil, China, Italy, Indon...
Autores principales: | , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Oxford University Press
2020
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7665699/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ptep/ptaa148 |
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author | Ohnishi, Akira Namekawa, Yusuke Fukui, Tokuro |
author_facet | Ohnishi, Akira Namekawa, Yusuke Fukui, Tokuro |
author_sort | Ohnishi, Akira |
collection | PubMed |
description | We demonstrate that universal scaling behavior is observed in the current corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) spread, the COVID-19 pandemic, in various countries. We analyze the numbers of infected people who tested positive (cases) in selected eleven countries (Japan, USA, Russia, Brazil, China, Italy, Indonesia, Spain, South Korea, UK, and Sweden). By using the double exponential function called the Gompertz function, f(G)(x) = exp(–e(–x)), the number of cases is well described as N(t) = N(0)f(G)(γ(t – t(0))), where N(0), γ and t(0) are the final number of cases, the damping rate of the infection probability and the peak time of the daily number of new cases, dN(t)/dt, respectively. The scaled data of cases in most of the analyzed countries are found to collapse onto a common scaling function f(G)(x) with x = γ(t – t(0)) being the scaling variable in the range of f(G)(x) ± 0.05. The recently proposed indicator so-called the K value, the increasing rate of cases in one week, is also found to show universal behavior. The mechanism for the Gompertz function to appear is discussed from the time dependence of the produced pion numbers in nucleus-nucleus collisions, which is also found to be described by the Gompertz function. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-7665699 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2020 |
publisher | Oxford University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-76656992020-11-16 Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function Ohnishi, Akira Namekawa, Yusuke Fukui, Tokuro Progress of Theoretical and Experimental Physics Paper We demonstrate that universal scaling behavior is observed in the current corona virus (SARS-CoV-2) spread, the COVID-19 pandemic, in various countries. We analyze the numbers of infected people who tested positive (cases) in selected eleven countries (Japan, USA, Russia, Brazil, China, Italy, Indonesia, Spain, South Korea, UK, and Sweden). By using the double exponential function called the Gompertz function, f(G)(x) = exp(–e(–x)), the number of cases is well described as N(t) = N(0)f(G)(γ(t – t(0))), where N(0), γ and t(0) are the final number of cases, the damping rate of the infection probability and the peak time of the daily number of new cases, dN(t)/dt, respectively. The scaled data of cases in most of the analyzed countries are found to collapse onto a common scaling function f(G)(x) with x = γ(t – t(0)) being the scaling variable in the range of f(G)(x) ± 0.05. The recently proposed indicator so-called the K value, the increasing rate of cases in one week, is also found to show universal behavior. The mechanism for the Gompertz function to appear is discussed from the time dependence of the produced pion numbers in nucleus-nucleus collisions, which is also found to be described by the Gompertz function. Oxford University Press 2020-10-03 /pmc/articles/PMC7665699/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ptep/ptaa148 Text en © The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Physical Society of Japan. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Paper Ohnishi, Akira Namekawa, Yusuke Fukui, Tokuro Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function |
title | Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function |
title_full | Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function |
title_fullStr | Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function |
title_full_unstemmed | Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function |
title_short | Universality in COVID-19 spread in view of the Gompertz function |
title_sort | universality in covid-19 spread in view of the gompertz function |
topic | Paper |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7665699/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/ptep/ptaa148 |
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