Preoperative prognostic factors associated with postoperative delirium in older people undergoing surgery: protocol for a systematic review and individual patient data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Early identification of patients at risk for postoperative delirium is essential because adequate well-timed interventions could reduce the occurrence of delirium and the related detrimental outcomes. METHODS: We will conduct a systematic review and individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of prognostic studies evaluating the predictive value of risk factors associated with an increased risk of postoperative delirium in elderly patients undergoing elective surgery. We will identify eligible studies through systematic search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL from their inception to May 2020. Eligible studies will enroll older adults (≥ 50 years) undergoing elective surgery and assess pre-operative prognostic risk factors for delirium and incidence of delirium measured by a trained individual using a validated delirium assessment tool. Pairs of reviewers will, independently and in duplicate, screen titles and abstracts of identified citations, review the full texts of potentially eligible studies. We will contact chief investigators of eligible studies requesting to share the IPD to a secured repository. We will use one-stage approach for IPD meta-analysis and will assess certainty of evidence using the GRADE approach. DISCUSSION: Since we are using existing anonymized data, ethical approval is not required for this study. Our results can be used to guide clinical decisions about the most efficient way to prevent postoperative delirium in elderly patients. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: CRD42020171366. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13643-020-01518-z.